Core view:
Pig prices rose month on month this week, and the profit of purchased piglets has turned positive. According to Boya Hexun, on May 20, the average price of pigs in some provinces and cities in China was 15.74 yuan / kg, up + 2.74% month on month last week. Since the phased bottom on March 25, pig prices have continued to rise. According to the price trend in the past 15 years, may August is the month on month upward stage of pig price. According to the sample, it is speculated that March 22 was the high point of fat pigs, and then the shock went down to September. At the profit level, the industry sustained deep losses from January to April; On May 20, the profits of China’s self breeding and outsourcing piglet breeding were – 175 yuan / head and 31 yuan / head respectively, and the outsourcing piglet breeding turned losses into profits. From our price tracking indicators, the price and weight of sows and piglets showed a volatile upward trend. On May 20, the price of binary sows was 33.68 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 0.13%. On April 8, 22, the piglets showed a phased bottom (24.25 yuan / kg), and then quickly rebounded to 32.79 yuan / kg (+ 35%) on May 13. In the context of rising pig prices, the prices of piglets and sows are also rising, which means the emergence of column filling behavior to a certain extent. On May 19, the average weight of commercial pigs was about 119.16kg, with a month on month increase of + 1.37%. Under the trend of improved profits or narrowed losses, some farmers may press the fence, but considering the current climate change, this kind of situation will be restrained to a certain extent, but the phenomenon of slow weight gain will still be formed. Generally speaking, the current pig price is gradually rising to the break even line, and the pressure on the breeding end is slightly reduced. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the pig price, capacity de industrialization and other aspects, and individual stocks should pay attention to the improvement of cost, capital pressure and the rationality of valuation.
In April, the feed output decreased month on month, and the price was high. The total feed output in April was 22.49 million tons, with a month on month ratio of – 3.7% and a year-on-year ratio of – 10.8%. Among them, pig feed, egg feed and meat feed were – 4.7%, – 4%, – 3.3% month on month, and – 15.2%, – 9.4%, – 12.1% year on year; Aquatic feed chain ratio + 2.7%, year-on-year + 25.2%. Compared with the same period last year, the total output of pig and poultry feed was – 1.9% – 2.9% year-on-year, of which the total output of pig and poultry feed was – 1.9% – 2.9% year-on-year. The livestock and poultry breeding industry is in the process of capacity clearing, and the corresponding feed consumption shows a downward trend. The high price of feed is affected by the high price of feed and raw materials. In April of 22, the price of fattening pig mixture was 3690 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of + 7.2%; Since the continuous significant price rise in the first quarter, the high price has been basically maintained in April. The price of carp adult fish mixture was 5220 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%; The price of aquatic materials has exceeded 5000 yuan / ton for three consecutive months..
The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.58pct, with agriculture + 1.65% this week, Shanghai Composite Index + 2.02% and CSI 300 + 2.23% in the same period. In agriculture, forestry, planting and animal health are at the forefront, with + 8.46%, + 7.81%, + 5.17% respectively, and feed – 0.48% is the sector with poor performance.
It is suggested that the pig cycle is the sector market, and individual stocks pay attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , etc. The field of post breeding cycle can be paid attention to in due time, including Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) , etc. in the field of feed, animal vaccine, etc. The seed industry pays attention to the progress of transgenic, such as Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc.
The risk indicates the risk of animal epidemic; The risk of pigs not reaching the expected level.
