Freight rates hit a new high and the industry boomed
At the beginning of 2022, the daily rent and cost of RO ro ship reached a record high, and the industry entered a period of prosperity. The core driving forces behind: first, China's automobile export volume has increased significantly, especially for Europe and South America, with longer transportation distance and faster growth of transportation demand; Second, in the middle of 2021, the export volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will increase by more than three times, while electric vehicles will be larger and heavier, requiring more space and deadweight tons of ro ships; Third, the covid-19 epidemic has caused port congestion, reduced ship turnover efficiency and reduced the supply of effective transport capacity. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the alleviation of vehicle core shortage, we expect the global automobile import and export volume to further increase in 2022 and 2023. However, the annualized growth rate of RO ro transport capacity in 2022 and 2023 is only about 1%, so we believe that the RO ro transport industry is expected to continue to prosper.
China's automobile export is expected to develop greatly
The competitiveness of China's automobile industry is growing, and automobile export is expected to usher in great development. On the one hand, the competitiveness of domestic cars in terms of quality, technology, brand and service has been continuously improved, driving the export volume to start high growth. At the same time, the export unit price increased, indicating high-quality growth. On the other hand, the new energy vehicle industry has taken the lead in the world and has great export potential in the future. In the middle of 2021, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles accounted for about half of the world, and nearly half of the top ten global new energy vehicle sales and power battery installed capacity were in China. In the global wave of electric and intelligent vehicles, relying on the continuously improved and strengthened new energy vehicle industry chain, China is expected to achieve great export development and become the global export center of new energy vehicles.
Ro ro transportation ushers in development opportunities
China's ro ro transportation enterprises have ushered in great development opportunities. First, China's export volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a high rate, driving the high growth of RO ro shipping volume. Second, the global automobile shipping trade route is expected to be reconstructed, and China's exports drive the average haul distance to become longer. Third, China's ro ro shipbuilding has obvious advantages. Chinese shipyards account for 75% of RO ro shipbuilding orders, and the top four shipyards are all in China. Fourth, the prosperity of RO ro industry since 2021 has brought good opportunities for enterprise development. The transport capacity of China's ro ro shipping enterprises is still small, and there is great room for development in the future. Focusing on Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers Co.Ltd(600428) focusing on special ship transportation and Beijing Changjiu Logistics Corp(603569) focusing on commercial vehicle logistics, we estimate that the profit contribution of RO ro business of the two companies will be about 10% in 2021.
Risk tip: global auto sales have fallen sharply, European and American countries have increased trade barriers, and the delivery pressure and excess capacity risk caused by the sharp increase of RO ro new shipbuilding orders
