After the RRR reduction in April combined with the decline of deposit interest rate, on May 15, the central bank and the CBRC issued the notice on issues related to the adjustment of differentiated housing credit policy, and the lower limit of the first set of interest rate was adjusted to 5-year LPR minus 20 basis points. On May 20, the five-year LPR was lowered by 15 basis points from 4.6% to 4.45%.
LPR was lowered again, with a slight decline in the five-year period, which was expected by supermarkets, and the lower limit of mortgage interest rate continued to open. The steady growth policy was stronger than expected, which was good for banks. The 5-year LPR reduction of 15bp plus the adjustment of the lower limit of mortgage interest rate is intended to promote real estate sales and investment demand. For banks, the impact of asset repricing will mainly occur next year. Considering the impact of early deposits and RRR reduction, the impact on interest margin is very limited, and the positive significance to credit demand is more important. Continuing the previous view, the economic data from April to may reflect that the impact of the epidemic intensifies the pressure on economic demand, or causes economic and policy concerns, pessimistic expectations or disturbs bank investment. With the mitigation of the epidemic, the policy strength is greatly strengthened, and the economy may be gradually repaired, the disturbance may bring better opportunities for bank stocks to participate. Continue to recommend high-quality regional banks, prefer high-quality urban commercial banks, recommend Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and other large banks, and pay attention to the value of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
The repricing of stock mortgage interest rate is mainly next year, and the new mortgage interest rate will decline more
Mortgage interest rates are mostly repriced at the beginning of the year, and the adjustment of stock interest rates may take effect at the beginning of next year. The individual housing loan interest rate announced by the central bank is 5.49%, which is equivalent to 1.19 times of the previous benchmark interest rate. Referring to the data and analysis released by rong360, the average interest rate of the country’s first set of loans in March is 5.28%, down 11bp month on month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 5.15%, 4.96%, 5.35% and 4.91% respectively, which are monitored in 42 cities, The first set of lowest interest rate in China is Suzhou. The first set of average interest rate is 4.62%, close to the benchmark interest rate. Mortgage interest rates in 42 cities and 31 cities decreased month on month in March. After the five-year LPR adjustment, the lower limit of mortgage interest rate was updated to 4.25%, equivalent to 95.5% of the new benchmark interest rate. The lower limit of new mortgage interest rate was significantly adjusted relative to stock mortgage, and the space for real estate relaxation was further increased. Since this year, the impact of mortgage interest rate and policy relaxation on sales has been weak, and the policy intensity has been significantly increased, which is intended to boost expectations. At the same time, compared with other loans, the downward space of mortgage interest rate is still large, and the policy space is still.
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
