Market review last week:
From May 16 to May 20, 2022, the food and beverage sector (Shenwan) rose by 1.31%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.64%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 2.23%. The food and beverage sector lost 0.71 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite index, ranking 24th among the weekly increases and decreases of Shenwan’s 31 primary sub industries.
Core view:
Baijiu: the upward rating shows confidence and looks forward to the recovery of consumption after the epidemic. Last week, Maotai’s wholesale price continued to rise. The price of Feitian Maotai’s original box / bulk bottle was about 2970 / 2740 yuan, and the year of the tiger Zodiac liquor was about 3630 yuan. On May 19, I Maotai was officially launched. A total of 2.81 million people applied for the four products of the year of the tiger, Maotai / treasures and Maotai 1935, with a total of 23000 bottles. At the macro level, infrastructure construction has been stimulated since August 2021, and the policy on real estate has been relaxed recently. On May 16, Shanghai has started to promote the resumption of business and market in stages. With the gradual easing of the epidemic and the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival peak season, offline business / public banquets, group purchases and other scenes are expected to usher in rebound repair. The cycle attribute of high-end Baijiu is weakened and its toughness is strong. It is suggested to give priority to the layout. Maotai has a strong certainty of annual performance growth. The exhibition modes of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) multiple regions have been opened, and the Dragon Boat Festival is fully prepared. The national cellar 1573 is priced at 915 yuan and the inventory is about one month. The structure of secondary high-end Baijiu is upgraded and the logic of Pan nationalization remains unchanged. The annual growth target is relatively conservative. If the epidemic situation improves in the second half of the year, the annual performance is expected to exceed expectations The Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) inventory is low as a whole. Around 0.5 month, Anhui Province was relatively less affected by the epidemic, with vigorous regional consumption and smooth consumption upgrading. At the same time, the momentum of liquor enterprises is strong, the proportion of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) gu8 and above products is increasing, and has entered the performance release period. The higher recognition of Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) Dongzang series terminals and rich channel profits promote the company’s volume and price rise, with strong certainty.
Beer: the epidemic has led to pressure on beer production, and the medium and long-term layout opportunities appear under the low valuation at the bottom of the sentiment. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in April 2022, the beer output of brewing enterprises above Designated Size in China was 2.587 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in April 2022, China’s export of beer increased by 12.9% year-on-year and the amount increased by 19.6% year-on-year; China’s imported beer production decreased by 6.9% year-on-year, and the amount increased by 1.0% year-on-year. The current epidemic has repeatedly led to short-term pressure on beer production. The second and third quarters are the traditional peak sales season of the beer sector. It is expected that the epidemic will improve and drive the recovery of beer production and sales. As of May 20, 2022, the valuation of the beer sector is at 8.65% since 2017. Under the current low valuation, the beer sector has entered the bottom of sentiment. With the expected improvement of China’s epidemic situation, the beer sector is expected to usher in medium and long-term layout opportunities.
Condiments: the cost pressure should remain, and the price increase and demand recovery are still on the way. In the short term, under the background that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other factors disrupt the supply and demand relationship of bulk commodities such as food and energy, the cost side pressure of the condiment industry is still high. In addition, poor logistics affects the transportation and channel maintenance of products and raw materials. At the same time, it will take some time for condiment enterprises to pass on costs and guide de inventory through price increase. In the medium and long term, the superposition of consumption upgrading and product iteration is expected to open up new market space and look forward to the demand inflection point after the improvement of the epidemic. Among the condiment enterprises, the main markets are less affected by the epidemic, and the enterprises that are better in channel and cost control are expected to stand out.
Investment advice
Plate configuration: Baijiu beer dairy products snack food condiments;
Baijiu: related target Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ;
Beer: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , the relevant target with high growth expectation in future performance;
Dairy products: the relevant subject matter Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , which makes concerted efforts in production capacity, channels and products.
Risk tips:
Risk of tightening industrial policies; Risk of epidemic spread in China; Food safety issues.
