\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) April produced 128600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 33.5% and a month on month increase of – 43.5%. The cumulative output of this year was 726700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.1%; The sales volume was 124300 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 33.6% and a month on month increase of – 45.4%. The cumulative sales volume of this year was 732500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.1%.
Comments:
The epidemic affected the short-term supply chain, and the group’s production and sales fell year-on-year, still outperforming the industry. Since April, due to the adverse impact of the epidemic outside China, there has been a shortage of imported auto parts, the supply of parts in Shanghai has been under pressure, the logistics efficiency has been reduced, and the national radiation effect has been prominent. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the production of the five main car enterprises in Shanghai decreased by 75% month on month in April compared with March, and the overall decline in other regions was 38%. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, China’s automobile production and sales decreased significantly in April, completing 1205000 and 1181000 vehicles respectively, with a month on month decrease of 46.2% and 47.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.1% and 47.6% Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) April produced 128600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 33.5% and a month on month increase of – 43.5%. The cumulative output of this year was 726700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.1%; The sales volume was 124300 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 33.6% and a month on month increase of – 45.4%. The cumulative sales volume of this year was 732500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.1%. In April, the production and sales volume of the group decreased significantly year-on-year, but still outperformed the industry level.
Independent sector: ea’an has a high year-on-year growth, and GAC motor’s production and sales have decreased slightly Among Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) its independent sectors, gac-e’an produced and sold 99 / 10200 vehicles respectively in April, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.5% / 23%. From January to April, it sold 55100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 113%. The star model aion y sold 5261 vehicles and aion s sold 3291 vehicles. GAC motor’s production and sales volume in April were respectively 1.71/201 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 30.5% / – 21.8%. The cumulative sales volume of all models from January to April reached 110600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.6%. In the MPV family, M8 overcame the pressure of the supply chain since the beginning of the year, with sales of 8036 vehicles in April, up + 33.8% year-on-year, becoming the main contributor to GAC motor’s sales, leading the independent luxury MPV market for 31 consecutive months. In April, the sales volume of gs8 series of SUV models was 2535, with a year-on-year increase of + 146.4%, and the sales volume of hybrid version accounted for nearly 50%, which promoted the high growth of gs8 Series sales year-on-year.
Japanese brands: Guangfeng’s production and sales performance is stable, and guangben is under pressure, with an obvious decline. GAC Toyota produced and sold 68200 / 68500 vehicles respectively in April, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.2% / – 7.3%. The cumulative sales from January to April reached 315500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.2%. Despite the impact of the epidemic, the production and sales performance was stable and tenacious. The three flagship Saina, Highlander and Camry continued to make efforts, with sales of 4642 / 5659 / 16452 vehicles respectively. From January to April, sales of 136813 units, accounting for 43.4%. The sales of SUV family willanda and hybrid family Lei Lingyue exceeded 10000 vehicles, 10650 / 16548 vehicles respectively, and the demand is still stable. The production and sales of GAC Honda in April were 30900 / 23900 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 61.2% / – 66.4%, which was greatly affected by the shortage of parts.
With the help of multiple factors, it will promote the recovery of production and marketing. Capacity recovery and expansion: (1) Shanghai Municipal Commission of economy and information technology issued the notice of “white list” of key enterprises. Nearly 2000 enterprises began to resume work and production. The resumption rate of the first batch of “white list” enterprises has exceeded 80%, and the capacity is expected to recover rapidly. (2) On February 18, the second phase of production capacity expansion of GAC ai’an intelligent ecological factory was completed, with production efficiency increased by 45% and customization capacity increased by 35%; Gac-e’an No. 2 plant is expected to be completed by the end of the year, with an annual output of 200000 vehicles. (3) Guangfeng’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 200000 “new energy vehicles” (line 4) and guangben’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 120000 new energy vehicles have laid a solid foundation for the goal of breaking one million in production and sales. (4) On March 10, the trial production line of gac-e’an self-developed power battery was driven and started. It is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2022. Gac-e’an self-developed battery, including sponge silicon negative electrode battery, will realize independent production. Implementation of new models and technologies: (1) the first model bz4x of GAC Toyota BZ pure electric series has been opened for pre-sale. (2) GAC Honda’s new electric brand e: NP is released. Starting from the first pure electric vehicle e: NP1, an E: NP series EV model will be put into operation every year by 2025. In May, guangben’s new global SUV Zr-V was officially released. (3) The world’s first overcharged capital (Guangzhou) of gac-e’an was launched and the super charging and power exchange center of e’an was completed. The magazine battery, super speed battery and sponge silicon negative sector battery technology independently developed by gac-e’an solves the problems of charging, endurance and safety. (4) GAC motor released JuLang hybrid system, GMC hybrid system and Toyota ths + turbocharged engine two-way full power electrified track. GAC motor yingku made its debut in the world in April, and Yingbao hybrid version and M8 hybrid version will also be launched one after another.
Investment suggestion: GAC is expected to maintain a high growth trend in 2022. Independent research and development and production of batteries will help alleviate the tension of the supply chain. The continuous large-scale production of new models and the improvement of production capacity are expected to bring new impetus to performance growth. Throughout the year, the rapid growth of sales combined with the improvement of product structure will drive independent brands to reduce losses year-on-year; The joint venture brand is gradually alleviated by the epidemic and lack of core, and the listing of new models will improve the investment income of the company. We maintain the expectation that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 is 11.7 billion yuan and 14 billion yuan, corresponding to 12 times and 10 times of PE respectively, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the recovery of the epidemic situation is not as expected, the prosperity of the automobile industry is down, the promotion and sales of new models are not as expected, and there is uncertainty about the approval of gac-e’an for listing.
