\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Event: Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) April produced 158200 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 62.0% and a month-on-month increase of – 62.3%. The cumulative output of this year was 1427500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.8%; In April, the sales volume was 166600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 60.3% and a month-on-month increase of – 62.4%. The cumulative sales volume of this year was 1387100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.2%.
Comments:
The epidemic affected the short-term supply chain, and the group’s production and sales fell year-on-year in April. Since April, due to the adverse impact of the epidemic outside China, there has been a shortage of imported auto parts, suspension and shutdown of suppliers in Shanghai, reduced logistics efficiency, and highlighted the national radiation effect. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the production of the five main car enterprises in Shanghai decreased by 75% in April compared with March. According to the economic operation of the automobile industry in April 2022 released by the China Automobile Association, China’s automobile production and sales completed 1205000 and 1181000 vehicles respectively in April, with a month on month decrease of 46.2% and 47.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.1% and 47.6% Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) April produced 158200 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 62.0% and a month-on-month increase of – 62.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 1427500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.8%; In April, the sales volume was 166600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 60.3% and a month-on-month increase of – 62.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was 1.3871 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.2%. Affected by the epidemic situation in Shanghai and surrounding areas, the overall production and sales decline of the group is greater than the industry level.
The “troika” performed well, and the joint venture was slightly weak.
(1) independent brands accelerated the “upward breakthrough”: the production and sales of SAIC passenger vehicles in April were 17400 / 18500 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 67.5% / – 65.8%. The cumulative sales from January to April were 212700, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%. Affected by the epidemic, the sales volume in a single month in April fell more, but the sales volume from January to April was better than last year. Feifan automobile and Zhiji automobile accelerated the “brand upward”. In March, the first batch of prefabricated mass production vehicles of Jizhi high-grade pure electric SUV Feifan R7 were officially offline and delivery is imminent. In April, “flagship of Shanghai New World Co.Ltd(600628) driving control” Zhiji L7 Pro was launched in mass production, and L7 dynamic was newly released at the price of RMB 408800 / 368800 respectively. In May, the world’s first pure electric MPV Rongwei new energy imax8 EV was launched for pre-sale, and the new third-generation Rongwei rx5 will be pre-sale soon.
(2) new energy vehicles continued to “increase in quantity and improve in quality”: SAIC new energy vehicles sold 22.98 vehicles from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. In April, Hongguang minievgameboy, a new member of Wuling Hongguang miniev family, was listed. The 2022 model of SAIC Volkswagen “ID. electric family” is newly launched, upgraded and equipped with many intelligent functions, and the functions of smart car coupling system 4.0 are further upgraded.
(3) the overseas market maintained “rapid growth”: SAIC overseas sold 210800 vehicles from January to April, with a year-on-year increase of 30.5%. SAIC has established an automobile industry chain facing the global market, with products and services in more than 80 countries and regions around the world, and has formed six “50000 vehicle level” regional markets in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, the Americas, the Middle East, ASEAN and South Asia. Facing many challenges last year, the group still made profits in European and other markets. In 2022, aiming at the booming European new energy vehicle market, SAIC will launch “global car” pure electric SUV mg EH32 and other new energy products, expand the marketing service network to 1200, accelerate the promotion of “European strategy”, and build the first “100000 vehicle” overseas regional market.
The production and sales volume of the joint venture was slightly weak. The production and sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen in April were 2.7330000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 75.1% / – 72.3%. The cumulative sales volume from January to April was 361200 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.1%. SAIC GM produced and sold 23800 vehicles in April, with a year-on-year increase of – 68.6% / – 70.4%. From January to April, it sold 298400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 28.3%. SAIC GM Wuling produced and sold 72000 / 76000 vehicles respectively in April, with a year-on-year increase of – 47.7% / – 43.6%. From January to April, it sold 402100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.3%. The group’s SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC GM and other production capacity are mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, and the sales volume has fallen more affected by the epidemic; SAIC GM Wuling’s production capacity is mainly distributed in Guangxi and is less affected by the epidemic.
The recovery of production and sales will be accelerated, and we will strive to catch up with the same period last year Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) officially started the pressure test of resumption of work and production on April 18, and the first vehicle under the pressure test was completed in Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) Lingang passenger car factory the next day. Since the start of the stress test in mid April, as of May 6, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) has more than 40000 employees in its affiliated enterprises in Shanghai to carry out closed-loop operation and production, and all major vehicle manufacturers have achieved stable batch production of finished vehicles. It is expected that from late May, the resumption rate of two batches of spare parts supporting enterprises on the “white list” in Shanghai will exceed 80%. The logistics pressure in the Yangtze River Delta will also be further alleviated. On the premise that the supply chain and logistics remain stable, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) vehicle enterprises are expected to gradually resume normal production, and the production and sales volume will strive to reach the level of the same period last year. In 2022 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) will strive to achieve the goal of annual vehicle sales of more than 6 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10%.
Investment suggestion: with the mitigation of the epidemic situation and the recovery of production and marketing, the company’s performance is expected to accelerate the recovery. It is optimistic about the layout and transformation of the company’s intelligent electrification in the medium and long term. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to be 26.39 billion yuan and 29.75 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 7.3 and 6.5 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, sluggish automobile demand, new business expansion and epidemic recovery are not as expected.
