\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 286 Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co.Ltd(605286) )
Elevator parts is a leading enterprise, and its main business is developing steadily. The company is mainly engaged in the R & D, production and sales of elevator parts and elevator metal materials. Its main products include escalator parts, straight elevator parts and elevator metal materials. China’s elevator industry has developed steadily, benefiting from the development of urbanization, the increase of infrastructure investment and construction, the transformation of old buildings and other factors. In the future, the market scale of China’s elevator industry is expected to expand steadily, and the market demand of elevator parts industry will continue to release. As a leading enterprise of elevator parts in China, the company has participated in the development of a large number of supporting products of the world’s first-line elevator brands, and the elevator parts produced are widely used in engineering projects in various fields. With the company’s raised investment projects put into operation, the company’s elevator parts production capacity will further increase, which will significantly drive the company’s performance growth and lay a solid foundation for the company to seize market share.
The rapid growth of new energy power generation and energy storage industry has opened the ceiling of the company’s development. With the promotion of the “double carbon” goal, on the one hand, the installed scale of Fengguang new energy is expected to grow rapidly. On the other hand, in order to ensure the power consumption of Fengguang new energy and the stability of power grid, the energy storage industry ushers in development opportunities. According to our calculation, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic is expected to reach 505.21 and 673.62gw by 2025. Compared with the current installed capacity, there is still large growth space, and the prosperity of Fengguang new energy power industry is good. Under the background of large-scale grid connection of new energy, policies promote the development of energy storage industry. We calculate that the investment in power generation side energy storage is expected to reach more than 100 billion during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and we are optimistic about the long-term development space of energy storage industry.
Epitaxial development cuts into the new energy track and opens the second growth curve. The company obtained 51% equity of Tianqi Hongyuan through equity transfer and capital increase, and entered the business field of electrochemical energy storage and new energy power station. Focusing on electrochemical energy storage and new energy power station, Tianqi Hongyuan has completed a number of projects in the fields of wind, light, storage and Microgrid, accumulated sufficient project construction and operation experience in the field of electrochemical energy storage and new energy industry, and is reserving more than 800MW new energy projects. Tianqi Hongyuan has three core competitiveness: technology research and development, comprehensive service of industrial chain, team resources and rich experience. With the steady growth of the installed scale of Fengguang new energy and the rapid expansion of energy storage scale in the future, it is expected that Tianqi Hongyuan’s revenue and net profit are expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. The company cut into the new energy track through the acquisition of Tianqi Hongyuan, which will bring new performance growth points to the company and open the second growth curve.
The company’s main business and new business have a combination point, and the synergy is expected to be released gradually Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co.Ltd(605286) after acquiring Tianqi Hongyuan, they are expected to rely on their respective market and customer resource advantages to achieve common development. On the one hand, Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co.Ltd(605286) has long been engaged in the customized processing of metal materials for various parts of elevator, and has a deep manufacturing accumulation. In the future, it can produce box structure parts of energy storage system for Tianqi Hongyuan, reduce the cost of energy storage system of Tianqi Hongyuan and further improve the market competitiveness. On the other hand, at present, the existing business of Tianqi Hongyuan is mainly concentrated on the power generation side and the power grid side, and the layout on the user side is relatively lacking. Tianqi Hongyuan can expand its business field to the user side customers such as elevator host manufacturers or building owners through Jiangsu Tongli Risheng Machinery Co.Ltd(605286) ‘s customers and market channel resources, so as to help them make effective use of the peak valley price difference and reduce the elevator energy consumption cost through “low storage and high generation”, and further open the business space.
For the first time, give the company a “buy” rating. As a leading manufacturer of elevator parts in China, the company has strong comprehensive strength. In the future, it is expected to rely on the advantages of product supporting, technology and integration to obtain more market share. After the company’s raised investment projects are put into operation, the production capacity will further increase, which will strongly drive the performance growth of the company’s main business of elevator parts. At the same time, the company cut into the new energy track by acquiring the equity of Tianqi Hongyuan and opened the second growth curve, which is expected to promote the rapid growth of the company’s performance. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.960 billion yuan, 6.840 billion yuan and 8.189 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 116.06%, 37.91% and 19.72% respectively; From 2022 to 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 239 million yuan, 312 million yuan and 400 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 58.38%, 30.87% and 28.04% respectively. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.42, 1.86 and 2.38 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 22.07, 16.86 and 13.17 times respectively.
Risk warning: the risk that the promotion of new energy projects is less than expected; The risk that the progress of the raised investment project is less than expected; Risk of industry scale measurement deviation; The risk of intensified market competition; The risk that the policy is not as expected; The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update
