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Information summary: where is the new driving force of the market? How to treat the reverse between A-Shares and US shares? Historical data tell you!

Looking back on the A-share market last week, A-shares did not fear the adjustment of the peripheral market and walked out of the independent market for days. Especially last Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher and went higher, once surged higher and fell back, then rose again after shock and recovery, and continued the strong pattern throughout the day.

As stated by Minsheng securities, after nearly a month’s rebound, some of the growth sectors are close to the historical center, and the rebound range has exceeded the historical center, but it may be the “reversal illusion” caused by the excessive decline in the early stage exceeding the historical average . It is noteworthy that in this round of rebound, the differentiation and convergence of the fund has obviously not kept up with the convergence of asset prices since this year, and “position covering” constitutes a potential reason.

Last week’s asset price performance seemed to be “magnificent”, but in fact it was “calm”. The preset path of fundamentals is no different from that before: growth rebound is coming to an end, and only by choosing a sub industry in which supply and demand are independent of inflation can we stabilize Zhiyuan . The real cycle is coming back. Grasp the certainty of energy, the repair elasticity of metal and the importance of energy transportation.

From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that the index opened higher on Friday, the Shanghai index successfully recovered 3100 points, and the volume of the two cities can be significantly increased to 921 billion yuan. The net inflow of funds from the North exceeded 14 billion yuan, which significantly boosted market confidence. With the accelerated introduction and implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth, the effect of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will continue to show, and the economy will accelerate recovery, it is expected that the market will continue to shake and repair, pay attention to the change of volume and energy and the flow of funds to the North , and it is suggested to be moderately positive in operation, paying attention to finance, real estate, building materials, food and beverage, power equipment, TMT and other industries.

In terms of the future market, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that the bottom grinding market of A-Shares may usher in a reversal. Although the regional epidemic development may still lead to periodic fluctuations of a shares, generally speaking, the “freezing point” of sentiment has passed. Under the differentiation of valuation level of Chinese and American shares and the dislocation between the bottom and the top of the economic cycle, the A-share market appears more resilient and attractive . Of course, we also need to see the large market fluctuations that may occur in the environment of relatively weak economy. Large cap stocks have stronger defensive power than small and medium cap stocks, so they are relatively dominant. At the same time, the prosperity of the growth sector is still. After the centralized release of the early valuation pressure, the allocation cost performance began to highlight. It is recommended to pay attention to it.

Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that on the trend, the impact of China’s local epidemic situation has improved, the resumption of work and production and business and market resumption have been gradual, the implementation of stable growth policies has taken into account the density and intensity, and the resultant force of policies has begun to appear, China’s economy is expected to return to a good trend month by month in May after reaching the low point in April, and the profit growth of A-Shares will also recover after the bottom in the second quarter .

In terms of rhythm, this round of repair market is characterized by slow rise. At present, it is still in the initial stage. Epidemic prevention and control and resumption of work and production are a gradual process, and external disturbances have not been completely eliminated. Although market sentiment has been repaired, it is still low, institutional positions are still low, and the inflow rate of incremental funds is relatively slow .

Structurally, four main lines continue to rotate . It is suggested to firmly lay out the two main lines of modern infrastructure and real estate throughout the year, continue to focus on the main line of resumption of work and production in the quarter, and pay attention to the main line of consumption restoration in the month.

So, what stage has rebounded to Guosheng securities mentioned that first, after three consecutive weeks of repair, the oversold kinetic energy of A-Shares gradually weakened . From the tracking of trading indicators, after three consecutive weeks of repair, the number of new low stocks and the proportion of vulnerable stocks have basically repaired from the extreme range to near the historical center, which also means that the oversold kinetic energy of A-Shares is gradually weakening.

Secondly, according to the law of historical experience, the space for this round of oversold rebound is basically fulfilled . According to the experience of oversold since 2010, in the oversold rebound market, the rebound at the bottom is equivalent to the decline in the early stage; In terms of the rise and fall before and after this round of rebound, the rebound space of the all a index has been basically realized since April 26.

After the “super stocks” rebounded, the “super stocks” rebounded in the industry, and the “super stocks” rebounded again in the industry. In the process of oversold rebound, the most obvious feature is that the greater the decline in the earlier stage, the greater the rebound. After the oversold rebound, the style will return to undervalued and blue chip stocks. In the industry, consumer sector has obvious excess advantages in the next week to two months .

The agency further analyzed that the inflection point of the epidemic, the peak of tightening and the ice of credit are the three-level drivers supporting the 4.26 counterattack after the oversold rebound, the market needs new momentum to rise further . Before the external interest rate, China’s credit and performance trend have not been reversed, medium-term layout continues to pay attention to three uncertainties : 1) the certainty of steady growth policy; 2) Dilemma reversal and certainty of long-term performance improvement; 3) Certainty of medium and short-term profits.

In addition, recently, A-Shares and US stocks began to reverse Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) statistics the correlation coefficient between the Shanghai Composite Index and the S & P 500 for three months. Since 1991, the average value of the correlation coefficient has been 0.17. After the split share structure reform of A-Shares in 2005, the average value of the correlation coefficient has increased to 0.30, while after the opening of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect in November 2014, the average value of the correlation coefficient has further increased to 0.40. It can be seen that there is a certain positive correlation between China and the United States stock indexes, but the overall correlation is not strong.

Observing the trend of China US stock index since the opening of Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect in November 2014, it can be found that A-Shares may not follow the rise of US stocks, but the trend of A-Shares is often dragged down when US stocks fall sharply. However, from the recent situation, since late April, U.S. stocks have experienced sharp declines of more than 3% in a single day. However, when U.S. stocks fell sharply, the trend of A-Shares began to run counter. Comparing the trend of Chinese and American stock markets since late April, it can be found that A-Shares have begun to desensitize to the decline of US stocks recently.

why can A-Shares remain resilient when U.S. stocks have fallen sharply recently Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that this is mainly due to the dislocation of economic cycles between China and the United States and the different positions of stock market valuations between China and the United States. At present, the United States is still in the stagflation period of declining economic growth momentum and high inflation. At the same time, it is also facing the tightening pressure of the Federal Reserve in terms of policy, while China is already in the late recession of the policy underpinning economy. Therefore, the macro environment of A-Shares is better than that of us shares; In addition, in terms of market microstructure, the valuation of A-Shares has been at a low level, while the valuation of U.S. stocks is still at a medium high level. The difference in valuation position also explains to some extent why the recent trend of U.S. stocks and A-Shares has begun to “reverse”.

Macroscopically, AVIC Securities pointed out that since this year, regulators have frequently issued policies to protect the economy. With the gradual easing of the epidemic in China and the recovery of enterprise production and operation activities, the financing demand of the enterprise sector is expected to be boosted to a certain extent with the reduction of the five-year LPR. However, since the economy was in a downward cycle before the current round of the epidemic, we expect that the trend recovery of A-Shares in this round may need the support of more stable growth policies, and the supply and demand of real estate after the improvement of epidemic may take longer to repair gradually.

Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) also said that the worst moment of China’s economy has passed, and all parties are accelerating the introduction of incremental policies to promote economic recovery although there is uncertainty in the overseas market, the valuation advantage of the Chinese market is obvious, and the market is expected to continue to improve . It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities in policy driven areas, such as steady growth, price rise, consumption, science and technology, etc.

It is worth mentioning that the investment promotion strategy research mentioned that the 5-year LPR was lowered by 15bp in May, which was higher than expected; In April, the RRR reduction was implemented, and the excess liquidity accelerated to improve. The year-on-year growth rate rebounded to 35%, at a historically high level; In April, the growth rate of M2 continued to rise by 10.5%, significantly higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP many signals indicate that asset prices have upward momentum .

In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that the abundant liquidity has brought important support to a shares. Although there are many adverse factors to the economy, the capital layout and asset appreciation seem to have begun. A shares have stabilized and rebounded as scheduled, and gradually entered a new round of upward cycle. Steady growth is an important main line at present, along the benefit sectors of new construction and acceleration of construction, as well as the traditional cyclical products, new energy infrastructure and other sectors of the main line of economic activity recovery after the epidemic, we can pay special attention to .

YueKai Securities said that suggested to pay attention to the following three main investment lines: 1) the large consumption sector that is expected to recover its performance after the epidemic eased : with the gradual easing of the epidemic, the resumption of work and production in Shanghai has achieved initial results, and the pressure on relevant industries is expected to be gradually relieved. At the same time, local consumption promotion measures continue to be vigorously promoted. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance recovery opportunities of the large consumption sector, Its performance in the first quarter has reflected the marginal improvement trend, including the mandatory consumption with toughness and the optional consumption with significant improvement in the post epidemic boom expectation, and the sectors of food and beverage, agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile and household appliances.

2) the main line of sustained and steady growth : at present, the economy is still facing triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation. The regulatory level has frequently given positive signals recently, and the strength of steady growth policy is expected to be further strengthened. The interest rate cut this week will help reduce the cost of social credit, stimulate medium and long-term financing demand and take care of the stabilization of the real economy, It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the large financial, infrastructure and related chain sectors benefiting from the second counter cyclical regulation.

3) high boom track with oversold rebound expectation : referring to the performance of the first quarter of 2022, photovoltaic equipment and semiconductors in high-end equipment related industries maintained a high boom, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company in 22q1 was as high as 115% and 59% respectively. From January to April, China’s wind power and photovoltaic power generation increased year-on-year, and the proportion of power generation increased. It is suggested to pay attention to the boom track that can maintain the high boom in the first quarter and realize the performance, such as new energy, semiconductor, military industry and other sectors.

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