This week, A-Shares did not fear the impact of the decline in the peripheral market and walked out of the independent market again. After four trading days of sideways trading, the Shanghai stock index finally broke through the 3100 point mark upward, which is a rare trend that A-Shares dare to challenge when encountering important pressure levels since this year, and it is an obvious sign of recovery.
However, while optimistic, we should also see that the volume of the index can shrink slightly compared with last week, indicating that long funds are still more cautious. The disk presents a multi-point flowering situation, and the subsequent market volume can not keep up, so differentiation is inevitable. How to view the current market and how to deal with it? Today, Dr. Niu and DAGO discussed topics of concern.
Dr. Niu: Hello, DAGO. This Friday, the Shanghai Stock Index stood strong at 3100 points and received a bald big positive line. It's really too strong. Many partners who missed 3000 points and even had short positions began to pat their thighs. Do you still have a chance
Daoda: from the recent news, we can see the deregulation of real estate policies in some regions, such as more underground adjustment of the loan interest rate of the down payment and the first house, the management's support for the platform economy, and the frequent care of the Securities Regulatory Commission for the stock market, such as guiding long-term funds into the market.
Stimulated by these positive factors, the Hong Kong stock market and China concept stock market rebounded against the market trend, and the A-share market also ushered in a good rebound. Judging from the rebound strength of the current market, the probability that 2863 points of the Shanghai Composite Index will become the bottom of the market in the medium term for a period of time in the future is increasing. It is precisely because of this that institutions smelled it that they pulled some weight sectors on Friday. Previously, I shared with my friends the direction of institutional position increase in the first quarter, and there was a good increase in intraday trading on Friday, which has explained the problem.
Repeat the previous medium-term view again. The Shanghai stock index is optimistic. You can see 3300 points, which is the high point of the Shanghai stock index's decline in March. Another bad situation is that the market returns below 3100 points again and the upward momentum is weak, which means that the current round of rise is over and the adjustment time is prolonged. Now the Shanghai stock index has broken through 3100 points and is developing in an optimistic direction. Next, it is directly facing the pressure near 3200 points. If the index wants to break through this pressure, it may also need to accumulate strength.
Structurally, the Shanghai Stock Index faces the risk of rising and falling early next week. Don't chase up at will. In case of correction, as long as the Shanghai stock index does not fall below 3100 points and the gem index does not fall below Friday's gap, it is a relatively healthy trend. Considering that the medium-term moving average, the 20 day moving average and the 30 day moving average have been leveled, it shows that the market has changed from unilateral adjustment to potential shock in the medium term, and the subsequent stepping back is a better entry point.
Personally, I think the index should be adjusted to be healthier. At present, the medium and long-term positive factors in the news have begun to accumulate gradually. It is unnecessary to be too bearish in this position. Next, the biggest focus of the market is to supplement the volume upward, and the unlimited upward attack or massive stagflation may be better short-term high selling opportunities.
The independent strength of the market on Friday is entirely supported by the weight sectors. The theme loses blood. The major weight sectors take turns to raise the market index and force A-Shares out of their own independent market. If the index wants to continue to strengthen, it needs the weight sector to continue to exert force. We need to take the opportunity to guard against risks in the process of shipment.
Dr. Niu: since DAGO mentioned that the opportunity of layout is that the Shanghai index callback does not exceed 3100 points, but now the boom track has rebounded a lot, is there still a chance
Daoda: indeed, the boom track is the focus of our rebound and bottom reading. So far, I am still very satisfied and completely outperformed the market. Since the current round of market rebound, photovoltaic, semiconductor, new energy vehicles and other sectors have ranked at the top of the increase list, but DAGO also made mistakes, such as insufficient attention to rare earths, and the seed industry is also on the increase list in this round.
This also shows from the side that the sectors with strong medium-term structure can not be taken lightly. Let me take the rare earth permanent magnet stock Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) as an example to illustrate the trend characteristics that need to be focused next.
From the perspective of weekly K-line, Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) is a box shock structure. Due to the current round of market adjustment, Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) 's share price just adjusted to the lower track of the box shock, and then hit a record high with the market rebound. Such stocks that use medium-term sideways shocks to resolve the downside risk of the market are worthy of attention as long as the overall structure is not damaged.
Among the stocks that hit record highs this week, there are many similar trend structures, such as Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and so on. In the historical bull stocks, such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , similar structures have appeared. The only thing to pay attention to is that you must operate according to the trading signal. Do not blindly buy at the top edge of the box or at the position where the bottom edge of the box does not stop falling.
At the same time, we also need to combine the direction of policy support, such as infrastructure, real estate, boom track, consumption, digital economy, etc. DAGO has also talked about the logic of sector direction many times, so I won't repeat it. Friends can decide according to their own preferences.
Dr. Niu: the news at the weekend is relatively flat, and monkeypox is the most discussed. The largest monkeypox outbreak in European history, who held an emergency meeting. Is this subject going to break out
Daoda: I checked. Monkeypox is a viral zoonosis. The symptoms in humans are similar to those seen in smallpox patients in the past. However, since the elimination of smallpox in the world in 1980, smallpox has ceased to exist, and monkeypox is still distributed in parts of Africa. Monkeypox occurs in monkeys in the rainforests of central and western Africa. It can also infect other animals and occasionally humans. The clinical manifestation is similar to smallpox, but the condition is mild. Generally, the patients recover in 2 ~ 4 weeks.
To sum up, infection is not as good as smallpox, and the disease is not as good as smallpox, and you can recover, so it is not particularly terrible.
The concept of monkeypox was blown up over the weekend, and "will it become the next epidemic" has also been hot searched. In the context of the outbreak of monkeypox in many countries, monkeypox concept stocks have moved on Friday. The trading limit of Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) was once "20cm", and Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Daan Gene Co.Ltd(002030) , Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.Ltd(600079) , Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) , etc. rose one after another. Weekend mood such a fermentation, do not rule out the possibility of speculation.
However, we also need to be clear about a rule. As long as it is not a big theme, the concept of blowing more on weekends is also very common on the next day. Last week's Stephania is still vivid. And at present, the strength of this theme is not as strong as covid-19, or even less than the theme of hepatitis of unknown cause. The reason is also very simple. The harm of monkeypox may be overestimated, and we don't have it in China.
Now the market focus is on the resumption of work and production after the epidemic.
On Friday, the only trading limit of A-share monkeypox concept was Jilin Yatai (Group) Co.Ltd(600881) . If it can't be promoted smoothly and hit a high level, it's difficult to hype this theme. You can pay attention to the theme, but you have to do what you can if you want to participate.
In addition to monkeypox, the two notices of the CSRC this week are also noteworthy. 23 policies rescue industry companies affected by the epidemic, and increase policy support in the application for initial public listing, refinancing, M & A, corporate bonds and asset securitization products by increasing direct financing support, implementing extension policies, optimizing regulatory work arrangements and giving full play to the role of industry institutions. The financial situation of listed companies will be better than that of the industry, but the financing of listed companies will be affected by the epidemic.
In addition, there is news about real estate. On Friday, LPR's "interest rate cut" boots landed, which can be seen as reducing the mortgage interest rate, which will boost real estate sales. Over the weekend, there was also news of the deregulation of many local real estate policies. Before, the real estate speculation policy expectation was poor and the dilemma reversal expectation has been hyped for two waves.
The final landing effect of the policy still depends on real data. Real estate enterprises that can truly reverse the dilemma and achieve a soft landing can stand the test of the market. Real estate stocks are bound to be polarized and the survival of the fittest. Therefore, the capital's attention to real estate stocks will gradually fall on high-quality real estate stocks.
Overall, the news over the weekend was relatively flat. For the upcoming market next week, we should treat it normally, do not chase the rise, and wait patiently for the trading signal.
