The off track of the monthly line connecting 2440 points and 2646 points of the Shanghai stock index is currently at 3029 points. The possibility of the monthly line being broken immediately is very small, because after all, it is the only support level on the monthly line after falling from 3708 points to 2863 points. Of course, as for the overall shape, you can't confirm now - is 2863 the beginning of a rebound or the final bottom? Some of the various indexes have fallen, and some have only fallen for a wave.
Usually in this case, it is easier to judge the potential of the market by individual stocks than simply looking at the market. It mainly depends on whether the rising individual stocks have long-term expectations or have no long-term prospects? When the rebound varieties choose the former, there should be longer-term expectations for the upward trend of the index.
Recently, I saw a circle of friends of a researcher in the new electronic materials industry. He said that the industry he studied was looked down on by many fund managers or asset management bosses two years ago. He thought that by 2021, the market will basically start to go down and take the bear market of industry fundamentals. Therefore, in the past two years, although the individual stocks he studied published very bright statements every time, both sales revenue and profits went up, the stock price of individual stocks has indeed been falling. What's depressing is that in fact, by the first quarter of 2022, the profits and sales revenue of this industry are still rising continuously. After the first quarter report was released, these stocks did not continue the previous downward trend, but began to rise continuously. Therefore, I think instead of paying too much attention to the short-term trend of the market, it is better to pay attention to the changes in these industries and the impact of fund managers' error correction in understanding and action on the market.
At the same time, this stage is the stage when the annual report begins to send dividends. In particular, the distribution of many bonus shares is of great significance to large state-owned enterprises. At this stage, it is unlikely that there will be a trading behavior of sharply selling individual stocks to give up dividends. For large institutional investors, this part of dividends and the change of individual stock price are actually of financial significance, which is a trading behavior that ordinary investors cannot understand. Therefore, this stage is not the best short stage. It should be a stage of taking a step-by-step view and refining individual stocks.
The time-sharing index, such as the Shanghai index, is a 30 minute rising wedge of the standard time-sharing structure. The closing at the weekend is just at the top of the rising wedge. This form will be explained next week; From the weekly line, it has closed for the first time in the last five weeks. This stage is a stage where there is no special reason to be short. Although the rise may still be difficult, we have to make some profits in the harvest season of the annual report.
(the author is a professional investor)
