Events
On May 19, the wind power equipment index (Shenwan class II) rose 6.5%. Among them, individual stocks such as Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipmentco.Ltd(301040) , Jiangsu Zhenjiang Newenergy Equipment Co.Ltd(603507) and Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) rose by the limit.
Comments
On May 18, the EU announced the details of the REpower EU scheme, which plans to invest an additional 210 billion euros in renewable energy in the next five years, and increase the proportion of renewable energy from 40% to 45% in 2030. Photovoltaic and wind power will become the main force of renewable energy construction in the EU in the future.
2) in April, the EU once again clearly emphasized accelerating the construction of new energy in the joint action plan for cheap, safe and sustainable energy in Europe. Based on the target of July 2021, the installed capacity of 80gw photovoltaic or wind power is increased. Assuming that the proportion of 80gw target wind power photovoltaic is 50%, the average annual photovoltaic and wind power of the EU is expected to exceed 46gw (42GW previously) and 52gw (48gw previously) respectively in the next decade, compared with 26gw 11gw increased significantly.
The margin of wind power equipment is expected to improve in the second quarter. It is expected that the profitability of the company will be repaired quarterly. From May to June, China’s wind power bidding gradually entered the peak season, the bidding price stabilized, the prices of major raw materials such as steel, copper and crude oil continued to decline, and the profitability of Listed Companies in the wind power equipment industry will be repaired quarterly.
Affected by covid-19 epidemic, the construction of wind power projects was slow in the second quarter. It is expected that the installed capacity of the wind power industry will increase significantly from the second half of 2022 to 2023, and the industrial chain will usher in phased capacity tension.
China’s wind turbine manufacturers export a smaller proportion of wind turbines. Goldwind / Mingyang / Yunda / Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) / Mingyang / Yingyang / Yunda / . The four host factories, Goldwind / Mingyang / Mingyang / yunyunda / 686868 Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co.Ltd(688668) 86868686868660. In 2021, the proportion of the overseas revenue of the four main engine factories will be 12% / 1 / 1 / Mingyang / Mingyang / Yunda / . In 202 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) 86868686868660. In 2021. In 2021, the proportion of the overseas revenue in 2021 in 2021 will be 12% / 1 respectively 12% / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1% 1 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) overseas revenue accounted for 42% / 30% / 10% / 17% / 17% / 14% respectively. It is expected that the price of domestic wind power and components will fall more significantly with the price competitiveness of domestic wind power.
Investment suggestions: focus on the parts and components that have the advantage of global production capacity and benefit from the decline of commodity prices. 1) profit distribution in the industrial chain: operators some parts main engine plants. The income and profit elasticity of offshore wind power are better than that of onshore wind power.
Key observation indicators of wind power equipment: bidding volume, bidding price and raw material price. In 2022, offshore wind power will focus on the bidding volume and bidding price; Onshore wind power has entered the performance cashing period.
2) in the short term, parts with global production capacity advantages and benefiting from the decline of commodity prices will benefit the most.
Focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , and focus on Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipmentco.Ltd(301040) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) .
3) in the long run, we recommend Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) (with high technical barriers and low degree of localization), Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) (with the fastest growth of orders and high performance flexibility), Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) (with a large proportion of raw material costs and high profit flexibility due to the decline of raw material prices), Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) (with the increase of elevator penetration rate), Asian Star Anchor Chain Co.Ltd.Jiangsu(601890) (anchor chain for floating offshore wind power)
It is suggested to pay attention to Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) (the increase in volume can offset the decline in price and is expected to achieve long-term profit growth), Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) and Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) (the cost of raw materials accounts for a large proportion, and the decline in the price of raw materials brings great profit elasticity).
Risk tips: 1) the newly installed capacity of wind power is lower than expected; 2) Raw material prices continued to rise sharply.
