review: since November 2021, the judgment style has switched to the direction of steady growth such as financial real estate, and the real estate of state-owned enterprises has been the first promotion. April 14, 2022 "what are the important signals sent by the timing framework of the" new half army "since adjustment?" It is predicted that the "new half army" will usher in a wave of repair in May.
Prospect: the wind continues to blow, and the repair of the "new half army" will continue
"new half army" leads the market repair since the beginning of this year, the Xingzheng strategy has summarized the three highly relevant hard science and technology sectors of new energy, semiconductor and military industry as "new semi military", and built a timing framework, congestion system and industry segmentation. In mid April, when the adjustment of the "new half army" was the most drastic, what important signals did we send out in the "adjustment to date" timing framework of the "new half army" It is predicted that the "new half army" will usher in the repair market in May; On May 5, the "new half army" timing framework sent a positive signal, which direction should we focus on Once again, clarify the index system and send a positive signal. The military industry and photovoltaic with key tips have also become one of the strongest main lines of the repair market.
the wind continues to blow, and the repair of the "new half army" will continue 1) while China's policies protect the market and risk appetite, they also create better macro conditions for the repair of the "new half army" following the central bank's announcement on May 15 to reduce the mortgage interest rate, the five-year LPR interest rate was further reduced by 15bp on May 20 2) the US bond interest rate fluctuated downward, and the impact on the "new half army" was alleviated in our "new half army" timing framework, the US bond interest rate is significantly negatively correlated with the performance of the "new half army". Recently, with the cooling of the Fed's interest rate increase expectation and the warming of the US economic recession expectation, the US bond interest rate has been falling. In the future, at least before the start of the table contraction in early June and the interest rate hike again on June 15, the probability of another sharp rise in US bond interest rates is small, or enter a platform or even a repair period 3) since the restoration, the current "new semi army" congestion is still at a medium low level, which does not constitute a significant restriction on the stock price since this year, the market has made a sharp correction, and the congestion of the "new half army" has dropped to an all-time low, and the pressure of transaction congestion has been greatly released. With the recent repair of stock prices, the congestion of the "new half army" has started to rise rapidly from the bottom, but it is still at a medium and low level, and the congestion of some sub segments is the highest, which is still at a medium level, and has not entered the overheating range 4) although the overseas market is still fluctuating, with the continuous improvement of the epidemic in China, the return of overseas funds has accelerated, and the pressure of RMB devaluation is also alleviating, driving the market sentiment to further pick up previously, during the peak period of the epidemic in March and April, foreign capital once flowed out sharply, and the RMB exchange rate also depreciated sharply, impacting market sentiment. At present, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in China and the continuous promotion of resumption of work and production, the return of foreign capital has been accelerating. On May 20, the net capital inflow of land stock connect to the North was 14.24 billion, a new high since the end of last year 5) with the passing of the quarterly report period, the market has begun to explore the hidden and wrongly killed highlights in the "new half army" more rationally and calmly since the end of last year, the market's concern about the performance of the "new semi army" has intensified the overall adjustment of the sector. In the "falling mud and sand", many directions with strong prosperity are also difficult to avoid systematic decline. At present, with the disclosure of the quarterly report, in the overall declining profit environment, the "new semi army" still has bright spots, which can better anchor the performance and valuation expectations 6) finally, combined with the judgment of our timing framework, the repair window of the "new semi army" will continue
specific to sub sections: 1 "the new half army" has strong immunity and maintains a high prosperity direction (photovoltaic module / silicon wafer, new military materials / structural parts, wind turbine / upstream materials, semiconductor materials / equipment, 5g optical fiber cable) : combined with valuation and performance certainty, as well as the judgment of leading indicators of our "new half army" timing framework, We believe that the science and technology growth sector is expected to usher in a wave of repair window in May 2) consumption of core assets (alcohol, duty-free, aviation, scenic spots and hotels) : on the one hand, it benefited from the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in China. On the other hand, the share price and valuation of the sector have been at a low level, and the internal and external uncertainties can be attacked and retreated The annual meeting of the Finance Committee on "economic and social development" stressed the need for "strengthening the overall growth of infrastructure" 35. At the same time, the global market is still in a mess of high volatility and low risk appetite. Infrastructure, real estate, banking and other sectors are both security and policy driven.
risk tips: focus on the unexpected return of global capital to the United States and the game between China and the United States.
