reconsider the "meal market, phased long" our early view of "eating the market and going long in stages" has been confirmed. There are three logical core points: first, the stock valuation is at a historical low and panic selling is reduced; Second, Shanghai resumed business and market, and the transaction of supply chain correction was started; However, the above factors have been very sufficient at this stage. The key reason why we are optimistic about the "meal market" is that the pessimistic expectation of the second quarter performance has been fully priced, and the fundamentals are bad, entering the stage of short-term passivation. Therefore, recently, the U.S. and European markets began to trade recession (under interest rates, stocks, gold and junk bond spreads), and A-Shares are more "independent", which is significantly different from the previous market linkage in the period of overseas inflation and rising interest rates. With the reduction of five-year LPR and the introduction of real estate stimulus policies, the market is in a long window period of "passivation of performance expectations in the second quarter + difficulty in confirming expectations in the third and fourth quarters + difficulty in authenticity of economic stimulus policies" next, we judge that the A-share market will enter the middle and later stage of easing policy, which is expected to move from divergence to consensus, leading to the rebound of the index, and the long momentum above 3200 will gradually decline. At the bottom stage, the layout should be low, not high
a shares are a rebound in the process of bottoming, and the policy effect is uncertain, which still needs time to grind the bottom the rebound in the "meal market" has little to do with economic growth and corporate profit expectations. However, it should be noted that after the overall rebound, the stock market will re-examine the fundamental repair and demand changes, as well as rebalance the micro trading structure. We judge that the logic of passivation of Q2 performance expectation is no longer applicable until the middle and early June of the market. After the resumption of work and production, the judgment of fundamental demand will again dominate the fundamentals. Stabilizing economic demand and restoring credit expansion are still important prerequisites for current stock investment. The expectations of the easing policy are moving from differences to consistency, but the differences in the effect of the easing policy are still huge, which is the core reason for the reversal of the current stock market's difficulty in smoothly entering the trading trend, and also the constraint on whether the OTC funds can enter on a large scale and the end of the stock game pattern.
from "growth panic" to face up to steady growth. Beyond the point, what is more important for investment is that after the bottom range is established, the investment main line will begin to be really clear in the first four months of 2022, only some stable cash flow sectors achieved positive returns. However, when the bottom range of the market is clear, the market is expected to turn from "growth panic" to face up to steady growth, although it is still structural: 1) risk appetite is no longer sharply downward, and investors will start to look for undervalued / wrong investment opportunities more actively from the psychological state of single risk aversion. 2) The investment main line starts to be really clear, and performance certainty is still the core style, but the marginal improvement from single performance certainty to performance certainty will begin to show the investment main line of steady growth and steady demand. 3) Growth is no longer a mixture of mud and sand but it is not to trade forward growth (there are still many difficulties), but to look for varieties with more early decline and improved performance certainty among growth stocks. It is suggested that the marginal performance of our position structure will improve in the process of market rebound.
better investment portfolio: A shares are added with stable growth value, and H shares are added with technology leaders stock selection focuses on stocks with performance, high performance certainty and marginal improvement of performance certainty. The subdivision of leading companies will be better than tail companies. Recommendations: 1) public investment sector dominated by government expenditure : construction, power grid, photovoltaic, wind power and Q2 pay attention to the midstream of some cycles such as consumer building materials and steel; 2) pay attention to the approaching opportunity of consumer goods : pigs, food and beverage and hotels. 3) stable cash flow direction: coal, chemical resources, second tier central state-owned enterprises, real estate and banks and H-share technology leader . The passivation of H-share technology leaders and consumption on the impact of the epidemic is an important bottom signal.
