Key investment points
The traffic of the short video track tends to be stable, and there is still room for improvement in user stickiness: the main stations of Tiktok and Kwai account for the vast majority of the traffic in the short video platform. In April, Mau and dau changed by 0.9% and 1% month on month, and -0.8% and 0.3% respectively, showing a stable performance. However, the overall use duration of users in the industry still shows an upward trend, and the user activity has also increased. The per capita one-day use duration of Tiktok and Kwai increased by 11.8% and 14.1% respectively year-on-year in April.
The negative impact of the epidemic continues. Fresh e-commerce may become the only beneficiary and dingdong food shopping leads the industry: due to the epidemic, residents have a high demand for daily necessities, and the whole fresh e-commerce track has maintained a significant growth in both user scale and use time. Among them, dingdong’s advantages in buying vegetables were further expanded. Dau and use duration grew the fastest month on month, and continued to lead the fresh e-commerce platform. Dau increased by 78.2% month on month, and the average daily use duration increased by 120.2% month on month.
Investment suggestion: in April, China’s macro level was still affected by the epidemic, and the overall Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) sales were in the recovery stage, but short-term consumption was still under pressure, and the Hang Seng Index fell 4% month on month. The NASDAQ fell 13%. Most of the leading e-commerce companies focused on the rise in share prices. Pinduoduo and jd.com rose 7% and 14% respectively, and the decline of some companies narrowed. The overall performance of the e-commerce industry was poor in April, and the number of active users and use time fell almost across the board. Due to the obstruction of logistics and the great pressure of performance, the e-commerce was dragged down, and the consumption had not fully recovered, which also put downward pressure on the e-commerce as a whole; The local living industry is still affected by the epidemic, dining out and entertainment are reduced, and the business of taking out and running errands is limited. Continue to pay attention to the recovery of the catering industry after the epidemic improves; As the beneficiaries of this round of epidemic, the fresh e-commerce industry still maintained growth in April, with high demand for residents’ daily necessities. Fresh e-commerce plays an important role in epidemic related cities. In addition, with the improvement of consumers’ acceptance of online purchase mode, we expect the application of fresh e-commerce to increase steadily in the long term; In the travel taxi industry, the performance of passengers and drivers showed a downward trend, which was generally related to the epidemic situation in April. Some cities entered the state of home isolation and online office, reducing the demand of passengers for travel; In the short video industry, after the traffic is stable, the user stickiness is still improving, and the use time of head platform users has increased year-on-year; The overall performance of the online music industry is stable, with little increase or decrease. We expect the overall online music users to maintain a relatively stable level for a long time; The OTA industry is greatly affected by the epidemic and the control policies of various cities. It is silent and limited to go out. It is expected that the performance in the future is expected to improve with the inflection point of the epidemic. In terms of companies, it is suggested to pay attention to high-quality industry leaders and companies with unique competitive advantages that can maintain long-term stability and progress in the face of downward pressure. At the same time, we judge that there has been an inflection point signal in Internet regulation, regulation will be normalized in the future, and the platform economy will gradually move towards healthy and stable development.
Risk warning: macroeconomic depression; The impact of the epidemic continues and the industry is under competitive pressure.
