Core view
Yimei: the logic of weakening the impact of the epidemic + increasing penetration continued to be fulfilled. In 2021, the performance of Yimei sector increased significantly, and the revenue of pharmaceutical machinery manufacturing / terminal institutions sector increased strongly by 75% / 27% respectively. According to the new oxygen operation data, the growth rate of monthly active users of mobile terminal Maus has slowed down significantly since 2021. The number of reservation payment has shrunk significantly year-on-year for two consecutive quarters in 2021h2. At the same time, the growth rate of supply side has slowed down. The growth rate of platform payment medical institutions has continued to decline from 43% of the peak in 2021q1 to 12% in 2021q4. It is further verified that the beauty of medicine has declined since 2021q2, It is estimated that the growth rate of the industry may slow down in 2022 under the background of “high base + severe epidemic”.
From the performance of Listed Companies in 2021 and 2022q1, under the qualification, technology and market barriers, the pattern of upstream medical and American pharmaceutical machinery industry continued to improve, the revenue and profit of listed companies increased simultaneously, and showed strong toughness under the background of low consumption; In terms of midstream terminal institutions, since 2021h2, the epidemic in many places has repeatedly disturbed the store business, and the parent net profit margin has fallen to close to the breakeven point. From the perspective of operating efficiency, the inventory turnover of medical and American enterprises accelerated as a whole in 2021, but the marginal collection situation of the industry deteriorated in 2022q1.
Cosmetics: in 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of cosmetics retail sales under the low base effect reached a new high of 14% in the past nine years. Under the outbreak of the epidemic in 2022q1, consumption was depressed, raw materials and logistics costs rose, the industry as a whole was under pressure, and cosmetics retail sales fell significantly. 1) Brand side: the performance of the enterprise is obviously differentiated, the performance toughness of the head brand is strong, maintaining strong growth, and the gross profit margin remains at a high level under the iteration of scale effect and product upgrading; In terms of expense rate, since 2018, the sales expense rate has continued to rise, and the management + R & D expense rate has been diluted downward under the effect of scale. 2) Cosmetics manufacturing and e-commerce operation: the revenue of key enterprises in the sector shrank significantly year-on-year in 2021, and Fujian Green Pine Co.Ltd(300132) suffered large losses under the influence of the decline in the performance of subsidiaries. At the same time, the repeated epidemic and the rise in the price of raw materials led to an obvious decline in the gross profit margin of the sector and an overall decline in profitability. In addition, the operating efficiency of the sector continued to weaken, and the payment collection cycle was generally prolonged in 2021, resulting in the deterioration of operating cash flow.
Personal care products: during the epidemic in 2020, the high demand for health care consumption fell, the revenue and profit level of household paper gradually returned to normal, and the cost side was expected to weaken. The revenue side of the washing and care products sector was basically flat in 2021, and the growth of the expenditure side led to a significant year-on-year decline in the net profit attributable to the parent company.
Fund position analysis: the total market value of the position of the beauty care industry of 2022q1 fund was 9.857 billion yuan, an increase of 16.53% month on month compared with 8.459 billion yuan in the previous quarter, ranking 29th among the 31 shenwanyi industries. With the industry valuation level falling to a safer opportunity range, the beauty care industry regained the favor of institutional funds. In 2022q1, the proportion of fund positions in the industry rebounded to 0.44%. In the same period, the proportion of beauty care in the total circulation market value of A-Shares was 0.36%, and the industry configuration was in an over allocation state. In terms of molecular industries, 2022q1 incremental funds are mainly allocated in the medical and American sector.
Investment advice
Since the beginning of the year, the epidemic situation in many places has repeatedly affected terminal consumption. With the gradual unsealing of shutdown areas in South China and East China, the overall economy and industry can recover steadily. We believe that the medium and long-term growth trend of medical beauty and cosmetics remains unchanged. Under the background of the epidemic, the Matthew effect of the industry is strengthened. Under the survival of the fittest, the leading enterprises can further expand their market share by relying on the advantages of brand, channel, supply chain and capital. We continue to be optimistic about Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) which is the leader of injection light medical and American medicine and equipment and Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , which is a leading domestic anti allergy skin care product. Relevant targets include Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , etc.
Risk tips
The epidemic repeatedly disturbs terminal consumption; Adverse changes in industrial policies; Intensified market competition, etc.
