Industry trend: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02%, the gem index rose 2.51%, and the public utilities and environmental protection index rose 1.57%. Among the environmental protection sectors, the atmospheric control sector rose 4.81%, the solid waste sector rose 2.62%, the environmental monitoring sector rose 7.97%, and the garden sector rose 7.96%; Among the power sector, thermal power sector rose 2.64%, clean energy power generation sector rose 1.13%, and gas sector rose 0.97%.
Key points of this week:
1) public utilities perspective:
The “new energy development plan” of Zhejiang Province was released on the 14th, and the “new energy development plan” of Zhejiang Province was put forward, which exceeded the “Five-Year Plan for the development of nuclear power generation” by 2025, and actively developed more than 10 GW by the 14th; The installed capacity of wind power has reached more than 6.41gw (including 5GW of offshore wind power), and 4.55gw has been added; PV installed capacity reached 27.62gw, adding 12.45gw. Hubei Province also recently released the 14th five year plan for energy development, which aims to add 5GW and 15gw of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Up to now, the energy “14th five year plan” of each province has been released successively, and the total scale of new wind power and photovoltaic in each province during the “14th five year plan” has exceeded 630gw. Coastal provinces regard “offshore wind power” as the focus of development. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the cumulative planned capacity of offshore wind power in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hainan, Guangxi and other provinces has exceeded 130gw. Since the dual carbon target was put forward, all localities have accelerated the pace of energy transformation, and the development of the industry has entered the fast lane.
In April, the power consumption of the whole society decreased: from January to April 2022, the power consumption of the whole society was 2.68 trillion kwh, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year; In April, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 636.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. The decline in electricity consumption in April was mainly due to the repeated outbreaks in many places in China and the decline in electricity demand. It is expected that the electricity consumption in May will remain relatively weak. In terms of installed capacity, the full Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) installed capacity continued to be put into operation. From January to April, the installed capacity of grid connected wind power in China increased by 9.58 million KW, an increase of 2.98 million KW year-on-year; The installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased by 16.88 million KW, an increase of 9.8 million KW year-on-year.
Under the current situation, internal and external disturbances are intertwined. Affected by the impact of the epidemic and the unknown situation in overseas Russia and Ukraine, the complexity and uncertainty of China’s economic development environment have increased. The electricity, electricity price and cost side of clean energy power generation are relatively stable, with strong performance certainty and prominent configuration value. It is recommended to configure nuclear, water, scenery and waste power generation with strong performance certainty:
New energy power generation sector: it is recommended that there are sufficient projects in hand, new energy projects are put into operation at a high speed, and [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] focusing on offshore wind power and [ Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) ] provincial energy platform with clear installation objectives in the 14th five year plan and benefiting from the advantages of wind resources in Yunnan;
Nuclear power sector: the progress of nuclear power approval is accelerated, and the certainty of future development is improved. It is mainly recommended that the two businesses of nuclear power and new energy develop together, and [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] with long, medium and short growth logic;
Hydropower Sector: it is expected that the power generation is expected to rebound due to abundant water this year. It is suggested to focus on [ China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) ] with stable performance and high performance growth expectation under the injection of Ukrainian white assets;
Waste power generation sector: focus on recommending pure operation waste power generation enterprises, actively transform lithium battery recycling business and develop [ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ];
At the same time, it is recommended that the proportion of Changxie coal is high, the certainty of thermal power business will be improved in 2022, and the thermal power transformation of new energy business will be accelerated. The new energy target [ Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) ].
Market information tracking:
1) carbon market tracking: this week, the total turnover of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 200000 tons, with a total turnover of 122029 million yuan. The weekly trading volume of listing agreement trading is 50 tons, the weekly turnover is 2900 yuan, the highest transaction price is 58.00 yuan / ton, the lowest transaction price is 58.00 yuan / ton, and the closing price on Friday is 58.00 yuan / ton, which is the same as last Friday. The weekly volume of block agreement trading is 200000 tons and the weekly turnover is 12.2 million yuan. As of this week, the cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market carbon emission quota (CEA) was 1915853 million tons, with a cumulative turnover of 8.356 billion yuan. This week, the trading volume of carbon emission rights in Guangdong was the highest, with 713700 tons. There was no trading volume in Tianjin, Beijing and Chongqing this week. In terms of the average transaction price of carbon emissions, the highest average transaction price is 79.01 yuan / ton in Chongqing market and the lowest is 9.82 yuan / ton in Shenzhen market.
2) natural gas price tracking: China’s LNG price fell. According to the data released by Zhuo Chuang information, the weekly average transaction price of national LNG ex factory this week was 738869 yuan / ton, down 239.06 yuan / ton month on month, down 3.13%; Among them, the weekly average ex factory price of the terminal was 777179 yuan / ton, down 343.33 yuan / ton or 4.23% month on month; The average weekly ex factory price of the factory was 701200 yuan / ton, down 243.70 yuan / ton, or 3.36%.
3) coal market price tracking: the coal price remained stable this week: according to the data released by the coal resources network, the cci5500 comprehensive price index this week was 792 yuan / ton, unchanged month on week. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index was 910 yuan, which remained stable on a weekly basis 6 Hitevision Co.Ltd(002955) 500 kcal index was 787 yuan, which remained stable on a weekly basis; Datong 5500 kcal index was 912 yuan, stable on a week-on-week basis.
Portfolio
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 905+ Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) + China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) + Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) + Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034)
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project operation progress is less than expected, the power coal price rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the electricity price is at risk of reduction.
