I. industry perspective
This Friday, the one-year LPR fell by 15 BP, and the “steady growth” continued to work. Compared with the previous 10bp interest rate cut, the single LPR cut is often greater. On the other hand, the decline of long-term loan interest rate is expected to further promote the expansion of housing loans and stimulate real estate sales. Last week, the CBRC and the central bank just announced that the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial individual housing loans for the first set of housing was adjusted to not less than the corresponding term, and the quoted interest rate of the loan market was reduced by 20 basis points. Coupled with the previous implementation of real estate easing policies in many regions across the country, the marginal relaxation trend of real estate has been more significant. Judging from historical experience, the reduction of loan interest rate often shows a negative correlation with the sales area of commercial housing, The LPR is quoted by the quotation banks according to the open market operation interest rate (mainly refers to the medium-term lending convenience interest rate), which is calculated by the national interbank lending center to provide pricing reference for bank loans. Therefore, the interest rate cut is expected to further promote real estate sales, and the upstream and downstream demand of the industrial chain such as housing construction and building materials is expected to be marginally improved.
Major projects were accelerated and the transportation sector took the lead. Recently, the work plan on Solidly Promoting the implementation of major transportation projects in the 14th five year plan was issued, which proposed 11 major transportation project packages (from 102 major projects in the previous outline of the 14th five year plan), and selected a number of projects with large investment scale, great social impact and great technical difficulty, As the first batch of key projects to accelerate the construction of a strong transportation country in the 14th five year plan, we will focus on promoting them, including Sichuan Tibet railway, G4 Beijing Hong Kong Macao expressway, g2518 Shenzhen Zhongshan river crossing, G15 Shenhai expressway, G1 Beijing Harbin National Expressway, g4216 Yibin Xinshi Panzhihua section (Riverside Expressway), g7611 Zhaotong Shangri La section, western land sea new channel (Pinglu) canal project, Xiaoyangshan North container terminal project Ningbo Zhoushan port and shipping facilities project, Yangtze River trunk channel standardization and smooth flow project, Hubei International Logistics core hub, Changsha Huanghua Airport comprehensive passenger transport hub, Hangzhou West High Speed Railway Station comprehensive passenger transport hub, Haikou new harbor comprehensive transportation hub, etc. In the context of China’s “transportation power”, the development of three-dimensional transportation is imperative. At the same time, we find that transportation has always been the main investment field in the project approval of the national development and Reform Commission.
Judging from the orders of central enterprises in April, the demand side is considerable China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) orders grew by 16.6%, 23.5% and 12.2% respectively from January to April, which is in a good growth range. Among them, China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) is a comprehensive giant central enterprise, with a growth rate of 16.6%, an increase of 4 percentage points over the growth rate of 12.6% from January to March. Although the epidemic situation was relatively serious in April, the whole signing of orders was still unaffected, confirming the considerable trend of demand expansion.
In April, fixed investment or failure to achieve continuous upward due to epidemic reasons. From January to April, the growth rate of fixed investment was 6.8%, 2.5 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. The growth rates of infrastructure investment, real estate investment and manufacturing investment were 8.26%, – 2.7% and 12.2% respectively, 2.2%, 3.4% and 3.4 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. From the perspective of investment orientation of fixed assets, the growth rates of investment in construction and installation, equipment and others were 8.6%, 3% and 3.5% respectively, down 2.7, 3.8 and 1.2 percentage points respectively compared with the first quarter.
Investment in improving people’s livelihood grew rapidly. From January to April, investment in the social sector increased by 14.4% year-on-year, driving the growth of all investment by 0.7 percentage points. Among them, investment in health and social work increased by 26.4%, and investment in education increased by 12.5%.
Major projects. From January to April, the completed investment of projects with a planned total investment of 100 million yuan or more (hereinafter referred to as large projects) increased by 10.9% year-on-year, 4.1 percentage points higher than the total investment, and the contribution rate to the growth of total investment was 81.3%, driving the growth of total investment by 5.5 percentage points. The role of “ballast” is obvious.
From the perspective of leading indicators, from January to April, the planned total investment of new projects increased by 28.0% year-on-year, which is conducive to the continuous expansion of investment scale. It is expected that the infrastructure investment led by subsequent major infrastructure projects is expected to usher in sustainable expansion after the recovery of logistics and transportation. At present, according to our statistics, the investment growth rate of key projects in various provinces (summary of comparable caliber) is about 8%. If the expansion trend of major projects is maintained, the expectation of considerable investment growth this year will continue to be effective.
Our may gold stock Quakesafe Technologies Co.Ltd(300767) belongs to the industry of building vibration reduction and isolation, which is in the critical stage of industry expansion recently. Previously, there was doubt that the “key earthquake monitoring and defense areas” mentioned in the regulations on the administration of earthquake resistance of construction projects failed to clarify the specific areas. Recently, according to the official information released by many regions, Sichuan, Chongqing The housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau of Dongguan and other regions clearly replied that the local area belongs to the key earthquake monitoring and defense area. Public information such as Hefei and Nanjing shows that the area is in the key earthquake monitoring and defense area. Therefore, the “rumor” that the scope of the “key earthquake monitoring and defense area” was unknown before was broken. In the important stage of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) high-quality development, disaster prevention and reduction and building safety have become key areas to be broken, and the development trend of building seismic reduction and isolation is still relatively clear, so it is suggested to focus on it for a long time.
