\u3000\u3000 Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) (688551)
Key investment points
The test power supply belongs to a typical long slope and thick snow track. Test power supply is a device that can accurately output different voltages and currents for performance test of different electric products in different situations. The test power supply and its system are mainly used for iterative product research and development of downstream customers. They are widely used and have many customers. They need to continuously expand the downstream through the advantages of quality, price, channel, brand and service. The revenue of global leader AMETEK and Taiwan Zhimao in the first three quarters of 2021 was US $4.02 billion / US $530 million respectively, and the net profit was US $710 million / US $130 million respectively. The net interest rate in 2020 exceeded 15%.
Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) the card position is high, and the downstream is subdivided to achieve rapid development. The industries such as photovoltaic power generation, electric vehicles and fuel cells are growing rapidly, and the scale of Companies in the industry is growing rapidly, laying the foundation for the growth of Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) . For example, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) R & D expenditure in the first three quarters of 2021 was 850 million yuan, and the CAGR of revenue and R & D expenditure in 2014-2020 were 35.9% / 39.1% respectively. Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) worked closely with leading companies in Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Huawei, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Weichai and other related industries. In the first three quarters of 2021, Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) achieved revenue and net profit of RMB 170 / 50 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 47.6% / 39.1%.
“Big beads and small beads fall on the jade plate” is optimistic about Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) developing into a comprehensive testing equipment company. Test the power supply with long slope and thick snow, make deep high power and wide low power, and realize “small beads falling on the jade plate”. In the field of fuel cell and IGBT module testing, the company is expected to seize the opportunity of demand explosion and domestic substitution to transform into a production line solution provider and realize “big beads falling on the jade plate”.
\u3000\u30001. Test power supply: industrial transfer reshapes the regional structure of the market, there is a strong demand for new product R & D and production line testing, and domestic manufacturers have obvious advantages in cost performance and service. The demand for photovoltaic, energy storage and electric vehicles continues to grow and the products are updated iteratively. The high-power test power supply is expected to achieve steady growth, and is currently extending to the production line around the offline test in the field of “three electricity” of electric vehicles; At the same time, accelerate the completion of low-power product serialization to expand more industries.
\u3000\u30002. Fuel cell test: the industrialization of fuel cell is accelerated, and the demand for fuel cell test is strong. The number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach 100000 in 2025, and the CAGR will reach 68.5% in 2020-2025. Since the end of 2016, the company has gradually possessed the full stack testing capability from micro to system to production line, and has realized the comprehensive layout of testing equipment from “hydrogen consumption” to “hydrogen production”.
\u3000\u30003. IGBT module sealing test: the localization process of IGBT module is accelerated, and the demand for domestic test system is urgent. Since 2017, the company has started to deploy IGBT dynamic and static test equipment. In 2021, the company has successively won the relevant orders and delivered the test links of CRRC Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) IGBT module production line, becoming the first domestic test equipment purchased in batch in the production line by CRRC, marking the expansion of the company from single research and development of test equipment to production line test equipment in the field of IGBT module; At the same time, the company acquired bonding equipment company to add IGBT module packaging and testing equipment for the whole line, and reserved SiC device testing system layout and compound semiconductor testing to deepen the layout of the industrial chain.
Investment advice
We estimate that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 249 million yuan, 387 million yuan and 556 million yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 57 million yuan, 88 million yuan and 144 million yuan respectively.
As a leading test power supply and system provider in China, the company’s demand for photovoltaic power generation, electric vehicles and other fields has increased steadily, and the low-power application industry has been continuously expanded. At the same time, the company has transformed into a production line solution provider in the field of fuel cell testing and IGBT module testing, We are optimistic that the company will “string the small pearls of each subdivided industry and field into a dazzling pearl necklace”. At present (January 13, 2022), the corresponding P / E ratios from 2021 to 2023 are 73.6x, 47.5x and 29.2x, covering the “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tips
The downstream demand for photovoltaic power generation and new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the progress of new product development is lower than expected, and the gross profit margin is declining due to intensified market competition.
