a few days ago, China's refined oil price rose for the eighth time in 2022. According to the notice of the national development and Reform Commission, from 24:00 on May 16, 285 yuan per ton of gasoline and 270 yuan per ton of diesel will be increased
The rise in oil prices has directly boosted the cost of fuel vehicles and promoted the warming of the hybrid vehicle market.
According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, from January to April 2022, the cumulative sales volume of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles was 315000, a year-on-year increase of 170.3%, and the growth rate has exceeded that of pure electric vehicles.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, told the reporter of the securities times · e company that the rapid growth of the hybrid vehicle market is the result of industrial competition. At the same time, the upgrading of national fuel consumption control for passenger cars and the rise of oil prices have also further promoted the market share of hybrid vehicles. At present, the hybrid electric vehicle industry is still in the stage of ready development.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research report points out that at present, China's hybrid vehicle market has gradually transitioned to the consumption driven stage. In the long run, the sales volume of hybrid vehicles is expected to reach 4 million by 2025, accounting for 30% of the new energy passenger vehicle market. Under the background of the rapid rise in the penetration rate of hybrid models, companies related to the industrial chain are expected to continue to benefit
autonomous vehicle enterprise collective force hybrid technology
Driven by the goal of "double carbon", the development direction of the automobile industry towards energy conservation and electrification has been further clarified. With the release of the technology roadmap 2.0 for energy conservation and new energy vehicles, hybrid vehicles that had not been highly valued in the Chinese market have also ushered in a "little spring".
According to the plan of the above documents, by 2035, the annual sales of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles in China will account for half respectively. Among them, hybrid power will be promoted in the automotive field as the most important energy-saving technology, and all passenger cars powered by traditional energy will be replaced by hybrid models.
before that, in the field of hybrid power, Japanese and Korean enterprises such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai Motor occupied a large first mover advantage, and Chinese automobile enterprises still had relatively limited investment in the field of hybrid power
Relevant data show that in the past seven years, the global output of hybrid vehicles has increased nearly threefold, and major vehicle enterprises around the world plan to significantly increase the R & D investment of hybrid systems in the next five years.
In recent years, with the launch and implementation of various policies to support hybrid vehicles in China, independent vehicle enterprises have collectively increased their technical investment in the field of hybrid vehicles.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) research report points out that due to the long cycle of fully realizing pure electrification, and the multiple restrictions of policies and regulations on fuel vehicle emissions and energy consumption are becoming increasingly stringent. Therefore, in a certain period of time, hybrid models will gradually become the main force of the market. Among them, independent brands are expected to increase their share in the hybrid market and reshape the market pattern.
hybrid power is a new energy vehicle technology different from traditional vehicles, which usually refers to oil and electric hybrid power. At present, the hybrid vehicle has a variety of power units such as light hybrid, oil electric hybrid, plug-in hybrid and incremental program
Among them, Mercedes Benz's class C model adopts 48V hybrid system; Toyota dual engine series and Honda Rui · hybrid series models adopt oil electric hybrid system (HEV) Byd Company Limited(002594) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Chery, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) all adopt plug-in hybrid power system (PHEV), that is, the vehicle retains charging socket and can be charged externally. The vehicle can be driven in pure electric mode. After the battery is exhausted, the vehicle can be driven in the mode dominated by internal combustion engine, and the battery can be charged in time. The ideal one and question M5 adopt the incremental program system, that is, the vehicle is driven by electric energy, and the engine does not participate in driving the vehicle. When the battery pack is low, the engine in the vehicle starts and the generator is used to charge the power battery.
It is reported that according to the power transmission route of hybrid drive, the structure of hybrid system is divided into series type, parallel type and hybrid type. Since 2021, China's independent vehicle enterprises have carried out innovation around the structure of hybrid system and launched self-developed hybrid technology and brand.
For example, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) lemon hybrid DHT, Byd Company Limited(002594) DM-I super hybrid technology, Geely's Raytheon power system, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) blue whale IDD hybrid system, Chery's Kunpeng DHT and GAC motor's JuLang hybrid.
The collective efforts of independent vehicle enterprises to develop hybrid technology have revealed the confidence of various vehicle enterprises in the prospect of hybrid vehicle market. Li Ruifeng, CEO of WeiPai, said that in 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach more than 25%, and the market scale will reach more than 5 million vehicles, of which the proportion of PHEV in the whole new energy market will increase to more than 20%, which means that the PHEV market will have a market scale of one million vehicles.
Cui Dongshu told the reporter of securities times · e company that from the current performance of independent automobile enterprises, the top several automobile enterprises still have some technical advantages in the hybrid field. According to comprehensive judgment, the hybrid market will have a relatively good market space in the future. At present, it is the key period for enterprises to do a good job in technical reserves and product development
hybrid vehicle market is heating up rapidly
Analysts pointed out that the collective development of hybrid technology by independent vehicle enterprises is not only related to the general trend of energy conservation and emission reduction, but also closely related to the predictable market prospect of hybrid vehicle market. According to the plan of energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0, new energy vehicles will gradually become mainstream products in the next 10-15 years, and all traditional energy powered passenger vehicles will be converted to hybrid power by 2035.
Faced with such a considerable market prospect, most car companies began to choose to focus their core resources on the hybrid field. In April this year, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced that it planned to stop the whole vehicle production business of its fuel vehicles from March 2022. In the future, Byd Company Limited(002594) in the automotive sector will focus on the business of pure electric and plug-in hybrid models.
from January to April this year, when most automobile enterprises were forced to reduce production and stop production under the pressure of the supply chain, Byd Company Limited(002594) sales increased against the trend, and the monthly sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) exceeded 100000 in March and April, of which the sales contribution of hybrid models can not be ignored
According to the data, in April this year, Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid models sold 48000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of more than four times 1 ~ April, Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid models sold 189600 vehicles, up 699.91% year-on-year, and the sales growth rate has exceeded that of pure electric models.
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) according to the analysis, recently, under the background of rising oil prices, Byd Company Limited(002594) hybrid models have been able to exert their power, and the use cost advantage has been further highlighted
Cui Dongshu also believes that the rise in oil prices is an important reason for the rapid warming of the hybrid vehicle market in the near future.
recently, China's oil price increased for the eighth time in 2022, 285 yuan per ton of gasoline and 270 yuan per ton of diesel. After this round of price adjustment, No. 92 gasoline in most parts of the country will reach about 8.7 yuan per liter
In this context, hybrid models that can be driven directly by electric power and save fuel will naturally attract more consumers. Not long ago, a Toyota executive publicly said that due to the rise in oil prices, the company expected the sales of hybrid vehicles to increase worldwide.
In fact, at present, in the Chinese market, the heating up of the hybrid vehicle market has been very significant. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in April this year, 68000 plug-in hybrid models were sold, a year-on-year increase of 94.1%; From January to April, the cumulative sales volume of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles was 315000, with a year-on-year increase of 170.3%, and the growth rate has exceeded that of pure electric vehicles.
" in the context of the deep adjustment of global energy, the trend of new energy in the automotive industry is more obvious, especially the rapid development of electric vehicles. However, the upstream raw materials required for electrification tend to be tight, the price and cost rise, and the downstream battery raw material recycling industry has not formed a scale effect, which will bring some market space to hybrid vehicles. " Cao Guangping, an independent researcher in the new energy vehicle industry, told the reporter of the securities times · e company that the hybrid vehicle market will usher in three important development periods, namely, the rise period, the window period and the extension period.
Cao Guangping said that when the cost of raw materials rises gradually, the cost of pure electric vehicles equipped with large batteries will generally be higher than that of hybrid models. Therefore, at this stage, the cost of hybrid models will occupy a certain advantage and the sales volume will increase. This is the rising period of its development. The period of time before the significant improvement of battery technology is an important window for the heating up of hybrid vehicle market. Subsequently, even if the battery technology of pure electric vehicles has been improved and the cost has been reduced, hybrid models can also be used in special industries such as rescue, rescue and military, and their development has a certain extension period.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) judged that hybrid vehicles have both low use cost and long endurance, and the demand for fuel vehicles in non licensed cities is expected to grow rapidly.
others in the industry have judged that compared with electric vehicles, the core advantage of hybrid models is not in cost, but in basic supporting facilities. When the supporting facilities of electric vehicle charging equipment are not perfect, hybrid models are not only an effective solution to realize the low-carbon development of automobile industry, but also one of the high-quality options to meet the convenience of consumers
Based on the above reasons, Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) it is estimated that by 2025, the annual sales volume of hybrid models in China may exceed 6.35 million, and the market space is huge.
cost reduction is the key to large-scale development
Although the market prospect of hybrid models has been very certain, the positioning of hybrid models in the market has always been controversial in the industry. Some insiders believe that hybrid models are only a transitional scheme, and ultimately rely on pure electric models; Other insiders believe that the promotion of hybrid models is the only way for the development of China's automobile industry. In the future, it will not only coexist with fuel vehicles for a long time, but also cover the markets where pure electric vehicles are not easy to promote.
The above insiders told the reporter of securities times · e company that from the perspective of various comprehensive factors such as the uneven development of various regions in China, the difference of geographical environment, different local policies and the differentiation of consumption level, the diversified technology path of new energy vehicles will still be the main feature of the development of China's automobile industry and market. As an important branch of new energy vehicles, hybrid vehicles are by no means a transitional scheme. If we continue to judge hybrid technology with transitional thinking, it will not only give inappropriate guidance to the innovation of Chinese automobile enterprises, hinder the research and development of new technologies, but also form inappropriate guidance to consumers and the market.
Dong Yang, vice president of China electric vehicle hundred people's Association, believes that in the future, the coverage of hybrid vehicles will surpass pure electric and fuel vehicles and become the most widely used technology.
On the premise of such a clear development path, how to improve the market share of hybrid models has become the most concerned issue of vehicle enterprises.
Cui Dongshu told the reporter of securities times · e company that the current hybrid market is in a state of readiness. In order to usher in explosive growth, car enterprises need to further improve technology, reduce costs through technological innovation, and hybrid models will have the opportunity to seize a larger market "cake" through better performance and better cost performance.
"from the product level, within the current price range of 100000 ~ 200000 yuan, the pure electric vehicle is subject to cost constraints, and its endurance and configuration are generally inferior to the hybrid models of the same level." An insider engaged in automobile distribution told the reporter of securities times · e company that hybrid is expected to become the most powerful competitor of fuel vehicles and pure electric vehicles in this price range. At the same time, if more and more hybrid models can achieve the same price as fuel vehicles, its replacement speed for fuel vehicles will be more significant
It is understood that at present, around hybrid technology, most car enterprises are concentrating on technological innovation, so as to reduce the comprehensive cost of enterprises and seize the market share.
For example, the DM-I hybrid system of Byd Company Limited(002594) has realized external supply. The hybrid SUV Skyworth HT-I released by Skyworth in April this year is equipped with Byd Company Limited(002594) dm-i hybrid system for the first time. Haitong international securities analysis said that Skyworth's move officially opened the curtain of the external supply of Byd Company Limited(002594) dm-i technology and will further consolidate the market influence and leading advantage of Byd Company Limited(002594) hybrid technology.
recently, it was reported that Renault is developing a new hybrid technology, which is driven by electric power and hydrogen energy. Among them, electric drive can be used for short distance and hydrogen energy can be used for long distance. According to the plan, Renault will put this hybrid system into use from 2030
According to the judgment of insiders, since the commercialization of hybrid electric vehicles has developed for more than 20 years, due to the differences in strategic planning, policies and markets of different countries and enterprises, various vehicle enterprises around the world have a variety of specific technical routes of hybrid electric vehicles, but the mainstream programs have gradually focused in recent years. If various automobile enterprises can make further technological breakthroughs in this field, the market space of hybrid electric vehicles will be broadercenter>
