Everything has signs.
The trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was "doomed" last night. Of course, it's not water skin that counts. It can be calculated that the stock market will rise today. In fact, the reason is that everything has signs.
First sign: yesterday, the RMB exchange rate has soared sharply, and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has risen to 6.713 Today, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has broken through 6.67 It should be said that the stabilization and recovery of RMB exchange rate is a major market background for the real stabilization of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.
The second sign: the Singapore A50 stock index futures index traded last night ignored the rise and fall of the three major US indexes traded in the same period. The independent index rose by more than 1%. The trend of the three major US stock indexes and A50 can be related to the trend of a shares.
The strength of RMB exchange rate and A50 Index has predicted the trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today. The question of which is stronger today is the index of no doubt; The second is the question of whether to rise the index or individual stocks; Finally, how much can the trading volume be enlarged?
As a result, we can see that the rise of the three major indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is not much different. The Shanghai Stock Exchange rose a little less, that is, 1.60%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose a little more, that is, 1.82% (the above data are from: choice data). Basically, the situation is quite different from that of the index rebounded in the past.
Today, individual stocks generally rose, with 3559 rising stocks and 1063 falling stocks. Basically, it is a situation of rising and falling together, without particularly strong and weak sector characteristics.
Today's trading volume is indeed enlarged. The trading volume of the two cities is a total of 92.6 billion. Although the trading volume is enlarged, it is not enlarged sharply, indicating that the kinetic energy of short selling is not consumed at one time.
Today, what is worth mentioning is not the performance of indexes or individual stocks, but the performance of northbound funds. Today, the net inflow of northbound funds is 14.236 billion - after today's inflow, the situation of northbound funds has been greatly improved throughout may. Until yesterday, northbound funds have been flowing out in May, with an outflow scale of 8.7 billion. However, the inflow of 19.3 billion yuan today and yesterday, so far, the northward capital has been a net inflow in May.
Why does shuipi say this is particularly important? Because this is a test of whether the Chinese market still has investment value? Is there room for counterattack in the future? Whether we can get out of the independent market in the next 2-3 years is a very important indicator.
From January to February this year, northward funds flowed in and out in March. In fact, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also reached a low point in March. April is a net inflow. If it is still a net inflow in May, it is of great significance.
Because we all know that the US dollar is raising interest rates, and the return of US dollar capital to the US market is a general judgment; Coupled with the sudden devaluation of the RMB some time ago, we will have great concerns and worries about the future of China's economy in combination with the impact of the current epidemic on the industrial chain. Northbound capital has now cracked such a worry with its own actions.
Looking back, the recent decline of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is actually closely related to the sudden sharp decline of the RMB exchange rate. From April 6 to now, the RMB exchange rate has suddenly declined from stable at about 6.35 to 6.83 This process is actually accompanied by the sudden fall of the Shanghai Composite Index from 3200 to 2863. Of course, in the process of relative panic, the main killing force is the financial stocks, especially bank stocks, which have been relatively strong this year.
In the process of banking sector, the whole sector index fell by about 10%. Among them, the leader China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) also suffered "continuous rain due to house leakage". Due to the problem of the president, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) was thrown down by the market, falling by more than 25% at one time, which brought extreme panic to the market. This background is the sudden depreciation of the RMB exchange rate mentioned by shuipi just now. In fact, it is disastrous news for assets denominated in RMB. The intuitive response is financial stocks, especially bank stocks.
From a perspective, the recovery and stabilization of the RMB exchange rate not only reflects the judgment of northward capital and overseas capital on the future of China's economy. At the same time, it will indeed bring incremental funds - for example, today's northbound funds have increased their positions again. Today's northward capital inflow is a one-day high in half a year. It has brought new incremental capital and played a great role in the recovery of the market.
Coincidentally, yesterday's China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) also announced the arrival of the new president. Today, there was a direct increase of more than 5% in China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) intraday. It seems that the fate of individual stocks is closely related to the fate of the whole sector and the fate of the market, which is reflected incisively and vividly in China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) body.
One sentence comment: you must tie the bell before you answer the bell.
