Summary:
Recent key industries: photovoltaic and machinery.
Food and beverage
In this period, the food and beverage board rose by 1.38%, the board performed better, and the pessimism gradually disappeared. Among them, pre processed food and cooked food were favored by the market as new sub sectors, up 2.27% and 3.42% respectively; Baijiu, beer, soft drinks and other beverage sectors also rebounded slightly. Judging from the recent market trends, the market’s confidence in the food sector is gathering and strengthening, and the sector is ready to go. It is suggested to pay attention to the core targets of early deep decline, including blue chip assets and growth assets.
Risk tip: it is difficult to reduce the cost of early prediction. Household consumption further weakened. China has a large area of logistics obstruction, which disturbs the production and sales of food suppliers.
Lithium battery
The current lithium battery index rose 6.75%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. In the short term, the Shanghai stock index is expected to fluctuate upward. Combined with the industry boom and the trend of the sector, the short-term lithium battery sector is expected to rebound continuously. It is suggested to pay appropriate attention to the high-quality targets with undervalued value in the subdivided fields and determined performance growth.
Risk warning: systemic risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies
Chemical industry
In this period, CITIC basic chemical industry index rose 4.27%, outperforming Shanghai stock index by 2.25 percentage points and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index by 2.04 percentage points, ranking sixth among 30 CITIC primary industries. Among CITIC’s three-level sub industries, 33 sub industries rose, with fluorochemical, soda ash and rubber preparation sectors leading the performance. It is suggested to pay attention to: coal chemical industry, pesticide and chemical fiber sector.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the price of products drops sharply, and the strength of environmental protection policies is lower than expected.
Computer
In this period, the computer industry continues to warm up with the rebound of the market. In addition, from the convening of this digital economy symposium, the importance of digital economy development has been further established, which is conducive to the introduction of follow-up policies and the stability of market confidence.
Risk warning: uncertainty of international situation; The upper reaches of enterprises cut spending under inflation; Local debt risk release; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
Securities
In the first half of the week, the securities companies’ index fluctuated horizontally at a low level for 5, and rebounded significantly with various equity indexes in the following week.
In the short cycle, the brokerage index has room and expectation for further rebound, but it will still maintain the trend of shaking the bottom of the market as a whole.
Risk tips: 1 The weakening of the equity and fixed income market environment led to the decline of the overall operating performance of the industry; 2. Market fluctuation risk; 3. The progress and strength of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market are less than expected.
Photovoltaic
The photovoltaic industry rose 10.65% this week, significantly higher than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The weekly turnover of photovoltaic sector was 179173 billion yuan, with a month on month volume. Individual stocks in the sector rebounded sharply, with a good profit-making effect. Market sentiment continued to repair, and the heat of funds on the photovoltaic sector increased. Considering the strong installation demand in the overseas market, the depreciation of RMB, the construction of China’s scenery base and the rapid growth of Distributed installation, there are phased investment opportunities in the photovoltaic sector. Investors are advised to pay active attention to integrated module plants, photovoltaic equipment and thermal field material enterprises with reasonable valuation.
Risk warning: the global installed demand is less than expected; Performance growth was less than expected.
Media
In order to contain the development trend of the epidemic in a short time and prevent the further spread of the epidemic, since April, many places across the country have improved the strictness of control measures to varying degrees, significantly reduced the flow of personnel, and negatively affected the production and operation activities at the social level and residents’ consumption. It is expected that industries highly dependent on offline such as advertising, film and television, books and so on will continue to be under pressure in the second quarter. In the medium and long term, with the effect of the “dynamic clearing” policy, the epidemic is expected to be effectively controlled, and China’s production and operation and residents’ lives will return to normal. In addition, the national policy level may fully consider the areas seriously affected by the epidemic and issue various support policies, which is expected to help the repair of industries such as advertising and offline cinemas, and Q3 performance is expected to improve month on month.
Risk warning: the risk of international political turmoil; The risk of repeated outbreaks and virus mutation; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to unstable performance.
Machinery
In this period, CS machinery sector rose 3.6%, outperforming CSI 300 (2.23%) by 1.37 PCT, ranking eighth in 30 CS primary industries. Continue to focus on the mainstream track of scientific and technological growth. In the short term, the adjustment range of mainstream new energy equipment and semiconductor equipment track is relatively deep. It is suggested to lay out the opportunity for the bottom reading rebound of the leader of the growth track. The recent steady growth sector has performed well, benefiting the leaders of the pro cyclical sectors such as construction machinery, coal machinery and oil and gas equipment.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply; Major changes have taken place in the new energy policy.
Household appliances
CITIC’s home appliance industry index rose slightly by 0.9% this week, ranking 25th in CITIC’s primary industry classification, with weak performance. Among the sub sectors, the black electricity sector continued to rise, rising by 4.3% this week; The growth rate of small household appliances expanded to 4.03%; The performance of white electricity sector is still weak, rising only 0.01% this week. In terms of individual stocks, Kennede Electronics Mfg.Co.Ltd(002723) (22.51%), Zhejiang Goldensea Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(603311) (21.41%) and Yichang Technology (15.27%) led the increase. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the traditional household electrical industry and the enterprises of optional consumer appliances.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
In this period, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (CITIC) industry increased by 1.82%; The CSI 300 index rose 2.23%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry lost 0.41 percentage points to the benchmark index. From the perspective of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, the aquatic products processing sector increased the most this week, closing up 17.30%; Pet food sector fell the most, closing down 0.94%. Suggestions: focus on the pet food sector in the high growth track and the seed industry sector with policy expectations.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in livestock and poultry prices and raw material prices; Risk that the progress of relevant policies of seed industry is less than expected; The aggravation and deterioration of African swine fever has led to the risk that the slaughter volume of pigs is less than expected.
