In the context of the overnight sharp decline in US stocks, on May 19, A-Shares opened low and went high, and growth tracks such as wind power, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles increased significantly, becoming the main force in the market. In this regard, analysts said that after a substantial adjustment in the early stage, A-Shares have fully reflected various risk factors, and the operation logic of the future market will focus on “I” to carry out the medium-term repair market.
investor confidence gradually restored
On May 19, A-Shares staged an independent market, boosting investor confidence. In the hearts of many old investors, there is another layer of special significance. On May 19, 1999, the Shanghai stock index hit the bottom and rebounded, closing up sharply by 4.64%, sweeping away the market downturn in the early stage, and increased by about 66% in the following 31 trading days, opening the prelude to the last round of bull market of A-Shares at the end of the last century.
Does the current market have the conditions to repeat the “5.19” market? Private placement fund manager Xia Fengguang said that the current ratio of the total market value of A-Shares to GDP, the structure of listed companies, the composition of investors and the stage of macroeconomic development are very different from those at that time.
“Even if there are similarities in some aspects, such as the technical form of the index, it will not reproduce the ‘5.19’ market. At that time, the market was small and sensitive to policies, and the new funds were easy to bring high fluctuations to the market. At one time, even if the market did not rule out the possibility of pulse in the short term, there were no conditions to evolve into the ‘5.19’ market.” Xia Fengguang thinks.
Although it is unlikely to repeat the “5.19” market, the market is showing a good trend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy research shows that investor confidence begins to recover gradually, the toughness of A-Shares is significantly enhanced, and the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation and fed interest rate hike on A-Shares is also significantly weakened. It is expected that the market will start a medium-term repair market that will last for several months.
four main Nuggets growth track
The gradual recovery of growth tracks such as wind power, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles is a major attraction of the recent market.
“Due to the improvement of the economic boom and the expected growth of non-ferrous metal stocks in the upstream and downstream, the marginal growth of non-ferrous metal stocks has gradually eased. Due to the improvement of the economic boom and the expected growth of non-ferrous metal stocks in the downstream, the marginal growth of non-ferrous metal stocks has gradually eased. Due to the improvement of the economic growth in the upstream and downstream, the marginal growth of non-ferrous metal stocks has gradually eased.” Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) strategy analyst Dai Kang said.
Dai Kang believes that in the future, nuggets can grow from four main tracks. First, the pharmaceutical, new infrastructure, new materials and other sectors benefiting from the phased decline of US bond interest rates; Secondly, semiconductor, medicine, new energy vehicles and other sectors benefiting from the resumption of work and production and the repair of supply and demand structure after the epidemic; Furthermore, photovoltaic modules and other sectors benefiting from the “steady growth” of the new energy consumption chain; Finally, wind power and other sectors benefiting from the periodic decline in the price of materials upstream of the emerging industrial chain.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) believes that the current market is still a stock game, and the range of short-term growth stocks outperforming value stocks is still within a reasonable range, but the allocation should begin to tend to be gradually balanced. At present, the main rotating sectors of the market include: coal, chemical and agricultural sectors with undervalued and good performance, which is the main direction benefiting from the commodity bull market in the second half; Infrastructure, real estate and consumer goods sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations; Benefiting from the resumption of production and work and the rebound logic of track stocks, the military industry, electronics, tourism and hotel sectors.
