Today (May 20), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board, and fell back after the rapid rise at the beginning of the session. Then there was shock consolidation. Near noon, the stock index showed signs of shock rise again, and the overall trend was strong.
From the disk point of view, coal stocks took the lead, food and beverage, automobile, camping, home appliances and other industry sectors also performed prominently, and the consumption recovery was just at the right time. In addition, the nonferrous metals and logistics sectors also rose ahead, the industry and concept sectors rose more or fell less, and the local profit-making effect soared.
It is worth mentioning that in the automobile sector, as of the press release, Zhongtong Bus Co.Ltd(000957) staged six consecutive boards, Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.Ltd(000868) also increased the limit, Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) , Yangzhou Yaxingmotor Coach Co.Ltd(600213) and so on led the increase; In terms of outdoor camping sector, Toread Holdings Group Co.Ltd(300005) once raised the 20cm limit, Beijing Sanfo Outdoor Products Co.Ltd(002780) , Yotrio Group Co.Ltd(002489) and other outstanding performances.
Bohai Securities believes that although the peripheral index is still under great pressure, China’s index shows a certain resistance to decline. If the index does not break in the consolidation adjustment, it will accumulate more strength for the upward attack in the next stage. It is suggested to be patient and select and allocate stocks from a medium and long-term perspective in the process of market consolidation.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] food and beverage
Bohai Securities mentioned that in April, with the continuous adjustment of the sector, the valuation of some leading segments has been close to the low point in the past decade, the investment value has appeared, the demand for quick-frozen food and prefabricated vegetables under the catalysis of the epidemic has increased, and the overall good performance of the industry in the first quarter has enabled the sector to open the short-term repair market.
From the monthly data, the impact of the epidemic was more obvious in the second quarter, but with the gradual resumption of work and production in key areas, the consumption scene is expected to continue to recover. At the current time point, we believe that each fine molecule industry has configuration value, and we suggest continuous attention. In terms of sectors, high-end Baijiu with greater certainty is still recommended. In terms of popular products, it is suggested to select the dairy industry with downward cost determination during the year and the beer sector with relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission. The beer sector will continue to benefit from the gradual recovery of consumption scenes after the epidemic, with the positive impact of price increase and high-end products, and high growth is expected.
BOC International Securities said that for the Baijiu industry, the annual consumption is expected to show strong resilience and actively deploy high-quality varieties. (1) 1q22 famous wines maintained a high outlook. The epidemic had a great impact from March to may, and the performance in the second quarter was under downward pressure, but the market also had some expectations. (2) Looking forward to 2022, we believe that Baijiu is still the sub industry with the best growth certainty, and the demand can be replenished after the epidemic situation is alleviated. (3) Considering that the valuation has dropped to a reasonable level, we can actively layout high-quality varieties at this stage. Focus on recommending deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , etc.
For the food industry, it will continue to improve from the second quarter to the fourth quarter, pay attention to the varieties benefiting from the epidemic and the varieties that need to be supplemented after the epidemic, and pay attention to the performance elasticity after the price increase in the second half of the year. (1) There are more opportunities for dairy leaders, the competition pattern continues to improve, high-end white milk and low-temperature white milk maintain rapid growth, the leaders are less affected by cost fluctuations, and the performance release power is strong. (2) The frozen food industry has benefited from the changes in consumption habits brought about by the epidemic, and the leader has strong ability to resist cost pressure. It pays attention to the growth opportunities of subdivided tracks, such as Guangzhou style frozen food. (3) Snack food, benefiting from the demand growth brought by the epidemic in the short term, pays attention to the improvement progress of various companies.
In addition, Debang Securities pointed out that the current competitive situation in the quick-frozen industry has eased, and the leading companies have significant advantages. With the steady growth of b-end demand, it can be expected, and many companies in the industry have arranged prefabricated vegetables to contribute new increment. On the profit side Q1, the cost of some raw materials such as soybeans and oil still increased, but the purchase cost of pork decreased significantly. After the superposition of price increase and gradual transmission, the profitability of each company still has room to improve. Recommend Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , a leader with deep barriers, and Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , which has achieved remarkable results in product channel reform.
(screenshot from deppon Securities Research Report)
[Topic 2] complete vehicle
Dongguan Securities pointed out that with the gradual easing of the epidemic, Shanghai’s automobile industry has fully resumed work, driving the automobile industry chain to accelerate the resumption of work and production. It is expected to resume normal production in late May. Many ministries and commissions vigorously promote automobile consumption, and a new round of automobile to the countryside policy is expected to be introduced in the near future. Since May, Guangdong, Shenyang and other places have successively introduced policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, such as car purchase subsidies. As one of the key supporting industries for the country to achieve the expected goal of stable growth, the automobile industry will be supplemented by production and sales after the epidemic is alleviated, ushering in restorative growth.
In the early stage, the sector experienced a sharp correction after the impact of the epidemic, the market fully released pessimistic expectations, superimposed marginal improvement expectations, the valuation is expected to usher in repair and the configuration value is expected to reappear. It’s suggested to focus attention on: under the opportunity of industrial change, and the opportunity of industrial change, self owned vehicle brands with rising competitiveness under the opportunity of industrial change. Self owned vehicle brands: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Byd Company Limited(002594) , Foryou Corporation(002906) .
Huafu Securities said that the auto sector market is finally based on demand repair, and we are strategically optimistic. When the relative returns of the automobile sector are obvious, they are in the stage of “upward demand cycle, active inventory increase or passive inventory removal, making the profit cycle upward”. In the short term, after the policy expectation is implemented, the demand is expected to recover gradually; In the medium and long term, under the reform trend of electrification and intelligence, the rise trend of domestic vehicle manufacturers and parts manufacturers is obvious. We continue to be optimistic strategically and resolutely allocate on bargain hunting.
(screenshot from Huafu Securities Research Report)
[Theme 3] outdoor camping
Shaanxi securities research report pointed out that in the third year of the epidemic, tourism around the city is still the mainstream of the travel consumption market during the May Day holiday. OTA platform shows that the camping market around the “May Day” holiday in 2022 is still heating up, and the search heat of “camping” related tourism increased by 117% month on month. Forest camping, island camping, Park Camping, star camping and parent-child camping have become the most concerned camping themes of May Day. Bookings of camping products for travel from March to April were hot, with a month on month increase of 120%, of which parent-child travel accounted for 45%.
Bohai Securities said that camping has multiple attributes such as sports, tourism, social networking and leisure, and the participation threshold is low. After the outbreak of the epidemic, peripheral tourism and self driving tourism have become the main choices of residents. The scale of China’s camping industry has exceeded 30 billion yuan and maintained rapid growth. It is optimistic about the growth of one-stop equipment supplier enterprises.
Guosheng Securities believes that the increased demand for camping under the fluctuation of the epidemic will drive the consumption of outdoor sports equipment and clothing, and then drive the upstream orders, benefiting China’s outdoor manufacturing companies. 1) In the environment of repeated epidemics, more people participate in outdoor camping, a short-distance and safe outdoor leisure activity. According to the data of the American Camping Association (kampggrounds), 48.2 million families in North America camped at least once in 2020, with a growth rate of 15% compared with 2019. Among them, the number of first-time camping families reached 10.1 million, a fivefold increase over the previous year. American Outdoor foundation data also show.
2) the increase of camping population drives the demand of equipment market. Despite repeated outbreaks, the new increment of camping market demand in developed countries has maintained good growth: according to cotswoldoutdoor data, the sales of camping equipment in the UK increased by 60% year-on-year in 2020. From the perspective of listed companies, the epidemic has driven the increase of outdoor related consumption in China. At the same time, overseas downstream demand has also driven the relevant supply chains in upstream China, and the performance of sector companies is excellent.
(screenshot from Guosheng Securities Research Report)
[theme 4] home appliance industry
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that at the current time, the household appliance sector is at the bottom of the valuation. It is suggested to grasp two main lines: 1) emerging household appliance tracks with both growth and certainty, including floor sweepers, integrated stoves and projectors; The performance of the first quarter continues to be verified, and it is recommended to actively layout at this stage. It is recommended to invest in all-round smart consumer products with leading technical barriers. The logic of improving the penetration rate of integrated stoves has been continuously verified by data, and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which has long-term vision of leading strategic pattern, strong brand marketing and channel power and rapid expansion of scale, is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which has strong product power and continuously reflects the effectiveness of the change of the few owners.
2) demand and profit continue to repair, and white electricity and small kitchen appliances are expected to usher in an inflection point in the second quarter. The epidemic situation has accelerated the demand for goods at home, and the data of refrigerators and freezers in March has been verified; There is also a logic of delayed consumption release in the small household appliance sector. White power recommends focusing on Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , which complies with the demand of consumption upgrading, maintains high growth, improves efficiency and governance optimization, and continuously improves profitability. The epidemic catalysed the demand for home cooking, which is expected to benefit from the centralized release of Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) .
Has the profit turning point of the power sector arrived? Capital Securities pointed out that (1) raw materials: since May, the price of bulk raw materials has fallen year-on-year, and the inflection point of raw material price has been found. Superimposed with the recent increase of ex factory price of products, it is expected to form profit elasticity. (2) Export: since February 2022, China’s export container freight rate composite index (CCIF) has continued to decline. It is expected that the export profit margin of export enterprises is expected to rise with the further decline of shipping costs in the later stage; The rapid depreciation of RMB in the short term is good for export-oriented small household appliance enterprises. (3) Real estate: the real estate policy continues to relax, and the valuation of the post cycle sector of the real estate chain bottoms out. The demand caused by potential real estate is not weak in 2022, and the subsequent household appliance sector is expected to achieve double repair of valuation and performance.
(screenshot from Capital Securities Research Report)
