Market review: in the past five trading days (from May 13 to May 19), important indexes continued to rebound; Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.37% and the gem index closed up 1.10%; At the style level, small cap stocks continued to outperform large cap stocks, with CSI 300 closing up 1.03%, while CSI 500 closing up 1.66%. In terms of trading volume, the volume of transactions continued to shrink. Within the statistical range of the two cities, the turnover was 3.91 trillion yuan, a month on month decrease of 267 billion yuan, and the daily turnover was less than 800 billion yuan; Among them, the northward capital showed a small-scale inflow trend, with a net inflow of 3.059 billion yuan throughout the week. In terms of industry, shenwanyi industry rose more or fell less, among which automobile, power equipment, real estate and coal industry ranked first; The pharmaceutical and biological, food and beverage, commerce and retail sectors have callback.
In terms of data, affected by the epidemic, both sides of economic production and demand were significantly impacted on the production side in April. In April, the added value of industries above Designated Size changed from positive to negative, falling sharply by 7.9 percentage points to – 2.9%, mainly due to the obstruction of production in some links of the industrial chain of automobile and other industries. In the next stage, with the promotion of resumption of work and production in Shanghai and the emphasis on “maintaining the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain” in the epidemic prevention policy, The impact on the production side is expected to be alleviated. On the demand side, the cumulative fixed investment fell to 6.8% year-on-year, and the investment growth rate of the three pillars all fell. Among them, the growth rate of real estate investment has changed from positive to negative and dropped to – 2.7%. The recent default of rongchuang US dollar debt reveals that the capital chain problems of some real estate enterprises are difficult to alleviate temporarily under the support of the current policy, and the growth rate of real estate investment will still be under pressure. In the follow-up, we need to pay attention to whether there will be greater policy support. At the same time, manufacturing and infrastructure investment also fell back to 12.2% and 6.5%, maintaining a certain degree of resilience. On the consumer side, in the context of the lack of consumption scenarios caused by the impact of the epidemic, the social security sector continued to fall sharply to – 11.1% year-on-year in April, and the short-term impact is expected to gradually ease under the control of the epidemic. However, considering that the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in April and the actual cumulative growth rate of per capita disposable income also fell to a relatively low level of 5.1%, In the superimposed social finance data, the medium and long-term liabilities of residents have increased negatively again, which also reveals that residents have taken the initiative to reduce leverage, and the recovery space of consumers is relatively limited.
In terms of policy, on the 18th, Li Keqiang chaired a symposium on stabilizing growth, stabilizing market players and ensuring employment. The meeting pointed out that under the influence of a new round of epidemic, changes in the international situation and other unexpected factors, the new downward pressure on the economy has further increased; Under the background of overall stable prices and relative control of monetary policy during the epidemic, there is still policy space at present. The meeting demanded that “we should act decisively and increase macro policy regulation”, “the policies determined by the central economic work conference and the government work report were basically implemented in the first half of the year”, “all regions and departments should tap the potential of policies, and new measures can be used up and released in May”, which showed that after the economic data in April were under significant pressure, the urgency of management to hedge the impact of the epidemic increased significantly in order to achieve the annual economic objectives, The short-term policy will continue to increase. In addition, the meeting also made arrangements in stabilizing employment, ensuring the supply of food and energy, and maintaining the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
In terms of strategy, in the medium and long term, factors such as performance, valuation and policy are generally beneficial to the market. In the short term, the market shows a shock process after a rapid rebound. Although the peripheral index is still under great pressure, the Chinese index shows a certain resistance to decline. If the index does not break in the consolidation adjustment, it will accumulate more strength for the upward attack in the next stage. It is suggested to be patient and select and allocate stocks from a medium – and long-term perspective in the process of market consolidation. In terms of style, in addition to being optimistic about the Shanghai index in the large index, we continue to be optimistic about the science and Innovation Board Based on factors such as performance, valuation and reform policies.
Risk tip: overseas market fluctuation risk, policy promotion is less than expected, and the epidemic development is more than expected.
