[next week's strategy]
Review of this week's trend
The market continued to rebound this week, and the Shanghai index returned to 3100 points. This week, with the general correction of major stock indexes in the world, the three major stock indexes rose against the trend and continued the rebound trend. In particular, the three major indexes rose in large quantities on Friday, up more than 1.5%, and the net purchase of northbound funds throughout the day exceeded 10 billion. From the weekly K-line, the Shanghai index rose 2.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.64% and the gem index rose 2.51%. Individual stocks rose more or fell less, while industries such as coal, power equipment, automobile, petroleum, petrochemical and non-ferrous metals rose higher; Pharmaceutical and biological, household appliances, banking and non bank financial sectors led the decline. This week, the net inflow of funds to the North was 15.218 billion yuan, including 11.489 billion yuan in Shanghai and 3.729 billion yuan in Shenzhen.
Study and judgment of the general trend next week: continue shock repair
Judging from the market this week:
First of all, the economic data in April weakened comprehensively, and the economic bottom may have appeared.
Secondly, the management again emphasized steady growth, the RMB exchange rate slowed down moderately, and the Federal Reserve tended to raise interest rates by 50 basis points.
Thirdly, the monetary policy responded proactively, and the price of LPR with a period of more than 5 years recorded the largest decline in history.
Overall, the index continued to rebound this week, the Shanghai index returned to 3100 points, and the individual stock sector rose more and fell less. From the perspective of market environment, although the economic data in April weakened comprehensively, with the effective control of the epidemic and the orderly promotion of resumption of work and production, the follow-up economy is expected to pick up. At the same time, the management again emphasizes the steady growth and requires that the policies that have been issued should be implemented as soon as possible. All regions and departments should enhance their sense of urgency, tap the potential of policies, and make sure that the new measures that are accurate can be used up and released in May. We expect that more steady growth policies will be issued in the follow-up to promote the stabilization and recovery of the economy. At the same time, a moderate slowdown in the RMB exchange rate is also conducive to the steady development of China's economy. In addition, in May, the price of LPR for more than five years recorded the largest decline in history, reflecting China's active response to monetary policy, China's determination to stabilize economic growth, and the overall stable and loose capital. From a technical point of view, under the general correction of major global stock indexes this week, the three major stock indexes rose against the trend and continued the rebound trend. The Shanghai index returned to 3100 points, showing China's economic resilience. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in China and the subsequent implementation of stable growth policies, it is expected that the market will continue to shake and repair, pay attention to the change of volume and energy, northward capital flow, finance, real estate, building materials, food and beverage, home appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industry opportunities.
Operation suggestions:
It is suggested to pay attention to finance, real estate, building materials, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
Risk tips:
China's epidemic has repeatedly hindered economic development and further increased the downward pressure on the economy; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, driving the high price of bulk commodities, increasing the cost pressure of enterprises, and the profits of industrial manufacturing were continuously compressed; The Federal Reserve accelerated the process of raising interest rates and shrinking the table, and tightened the capital side of the Chinese market.
