I. where are we? It's been dark for a long time
The consensus is that the dark is over, the difference is that the space is unknown, and the market Probability Choice under the stock game adds up
Now it's dark: the stock market stops falling, and the comprehensive expectation is that Q3 is better than Q2;
It is still uncertain for a long time: the stock game is still partial to defense. Like other sectors, consumption faces multiple verification (economic and sector profit inflection point), export verification (external demand and supply chain status), and the difficulty of epidemic repair or verification for more than 20 years (the external environment is different from the past).
II. Which sectors are being traded? How can we miss it? Run and recover
In terms of relative position, the excess of steady growth has been obvious, the subsequent consumption growth is easier to counterattack, and the market probability is faster than that of Q3 recovery
Policy catalysis in transmission: from infrastructure - consumption - technology, the performance of the sector may rotate (the marginal change of profit is the driving force behind);
Consumption will not be absent: steady growth has been exceeded (relying on policies before the economic bottom), and consumption is easier to counterattack (the consumption fundamentals of peers with recovery will be marginally improved after the bottom).
III. how to choose within the sector? If consumption rebounds, there are three main lines
Triple opportunities are selected in combination with the trading logic of the overall market and the marginal change of profit of segments:
The main line of Hong Kong Medical Science and technology stocks fell slightly, and the growth of Hong Kong Medical Science and technology stocks fell reasonably (PEG / long-term medical triangle);
Main line 2: profit compensation (small consumer appliances / beauty care, post epidemic consumption compensation or profit compensation of exchange rate cost);
Main line 3: Policy overweight after the epidemic (the marginal changes of household appliances driven by post cycle / value and real estate are reflected after two quarters of the policy).
Risk tips: the epidemic situation exceeds expectations, inflation pressure increases, exports are lower than expected, third-party data is distorted or lagging, and the research report use information and data are not updated in time
