This paper is the third part of 21q4-22q1 financial report analysis – prediction, focusing on the following issues: 1) when will the bottom of this round of profit cycle hit; 2) Considering the epidemic situation, what is the annual profit forecast; 3) The causes and sustainability of the boom differentiation of mass entrepreneurship and innovation; 4) How to interpret the subsequent growth / value ratio.
I. When will the profit cycle bottom out?
— under normal circumstances, the profit cycle of A-Shares should bottom at 22q3. According to the historical law, this round of profits should bottom out in 22h2 ~ 23h1, which is also confirmed by the macro leading indicators. Considering that the settlement of loss items and provision for impairment are mostly reflected in 21q4, 22q3 is more likely to hit the bottom under the base effect.
— however, under the impact of Q2 epidemic, the profit cycle of this round is likely to reach the bottom in Q2. Under the impact of the epidemic, the profit trend of A-Shares may be similar to that in 2020, that is, the profit growth rate of Q2 will decline “cliff”, Q3 ~ Q4 will gradually start the repair process, and the annual profit growth rate is difficult to return to Q1 level.
II. 2022 profit forecast taking the epidemic situation into account
— the growth rate of A-share performance in 2022 shows a “V” trend, and the annual growth rate of all a / non-financial is expected to be – 6.46% / – 9.41% respectively. It is expected that the performance growth rate of all a / non-financial 22q2 will drop to -9.56% / – 13.59% respectively, and repair to -6.46% / – 9.41% respectively at the end of the year.
— deduction of performance growth trend of major sectors: the boom of upstream resources has fallen, the financial stability and toughness have been highlighted, the profits of midstream manufacturing have been differentiated, the scientific and technological performance has generally declined, the optional consumption has been significantly under pressure, the necessary consumption has gradually warmed up, and other services have been greatly dragged down by transportation.
III. can the differentiation of entrepreneurship and innovation boom be sustained?
– Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has only dragged down the growth rate of gem by – 2.76%, which is not the main reason for the differentiation of entrepreneurship and innovation boom.
— the main reason for the boom differentiation of mass entrepreneurship and innovation lies in the high proportion and high performance of science and Innovation Board medicine, Dianxin and electronic standards, and the corresponding secondary industries include medical devices, photovoltaic equipment and semiconductors. Further disassembled to the individual stock dimension, photovoltaic mainly benefited from the high prosperity of silicon materials. Covid-19 detection provided increment for medical devices, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) which greatly boosted the prosperity of semiconductors.
— the main factor driving the differentiation of mass entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship in 22q1 will continue in the future, and the differentiation pattern of mass entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship may continue from the perspective of the whole year. Based on the above assumptions, we expect the annual performance growth of gem / Kechuang board to be – 21.11% / 22.35% respectively.
IV. how to view the subsequent growth / value comparison?
— after the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the relative value of growth has gradually strengthened, but from a fundamental point of view, it is difficult to reproduce similar situations. In fact, the relative value of growth achieved an excess performance in 2020, mainly because the growth boom was significantly dominant. However, the current boom difference in the relative value of growth has narrowed significantly, and the fundamentals are obviously difficult to drive the continuous rise of growth / value ratio. However, in terms of specific sectors, the cost performance advantage of the science and innovation board with both high growth + underestimation + low allocation may be highlighted.
Risk warning: Overseas volatility intensifies; Macroeconomic policy changes beyond expectations; Regulatory policies exceeded expectations.
