In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day in the world remained volatile, and the reading of 500000 cases / day was still not low. In terms of economy, the current situation and expected index of Michigan consumers in the United States returned to the downward trend in May, and the zero month on month growth rate of American society also further fell in April. After the suppression of high inflation and the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, the weakening of the power of physical consumption expansion has been gradually verified. The continuous improvement of industrial capacity utilization in the same period indicates the weakening of the impact of the epidemic on the supply side and the strong demand of enterprises; Although the growth rate of CPI in the eurozone slowed down significantly month on month, the reading of 0.6% was still generally higher than that in the same period in history, and promoted the year-on-year growth rate of CPI to 8.1%. Affected by this, the willingness of the European Central Bank to tighten was further strengthened.
In terms of China’s environment, the financial data released last weekend were significantly lower than market expectations, the residents’ loans reappeared net repayment, and the concerns of residents’ departments about reducing leverage rose again. The sluggish demand at the enterprise side directly led to the deterioration of the loan structure. The less increase of Financial deposits and the recovery of M1 year-on-year growth rate reflected the financial support for enterprises. It is mutually confirmed with the financial data that China’s economic data continued to weaken in April. In terms of investment, the constraints on investment caused by the weakness of the real estate market have further emerged. Its cumulative year-on-year growth rate has slipped into a negative range, and the manufacturing and infrastructure investment benefiting from the steady growth measures have maintained a certain toughness; In terms of consumption, the restriction of the epidemic on consumption activities and logistics led to the further decline of year-on-year growth rate; In terms of production, the epidemic disturbance is still a key factor, among which the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of manufacturing industry is the most obvious, which is the core drag of the weakening of the overall data in the current month; Looking ahead, China’s economy will improve marginally under the protection of policies on production and logistics in May. With the continuous easing of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, the shackles restricting economic activities will be significantly eliminated in June, which will further promote the implementation of early measures to stabilize growth, the momentum of economic expansion is expected to be significantly improved, the contribution of investment will be more prominent during the period, and the pace of improvement of consumption sectors will be relatively slow.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions rebounded slightly, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index continued to decline. In the middle reaches, steel and cement prices continued to fall. Upstream, the price of thermal coal remained volatile, the price of coking coal and coke rebounded slightly, the price of non-ferrous metals stopped falling temporarily, the price of precious metals continued to decline, and the price of crude oil fluctuated higher.
Risk tip: the epidemic development exceeded expectations
