Event: according to the forecast report of Russia’s socio-economic development scenario from 2023 to 2025 published on the website of the Russian Ministry of economic development, according to the basic plan, Russia’s oil and condensate production in 2022 will decrease by 9.3% to 475.3 million tons compared with 2021, while natural gas production will decrease by 5.6% to 720.9 billion cubic meters.
Supply and demand will continue to be tight, and oil prices will remain high;
In terms of demand, under the influence of multiple factors such as the current Russian Ukrainian war and high global inflation, IEA and other institutions reduced the global crude oil demand in 2022. However, according to the latest prediction of IEA, the global crude oil demand in 2022 will be about 99.4 million barrels / day, an increase of 1.9% over that in 21 years, that is, an increase of 1.88 million barrels / day; In terms of supply, OPEC, which has the largest idle capacity, adheres to moderate supply, and its output has not reached the standard since 21q1, and even the gap has gradually widened. In 22q1, OPEC + output was about 44 million barrels per day, an increase of only 700000 barrels per day compared with 21q4, which was far lower than its production increase target. In April 2022, the implementation rate of OPEC + production reduction reached 162%, which continued to reach a new high; In terms of inventory, recently, the US crude oil inventory was about 1154 million barrels, falling below the lowest level since 2015; OECD crude oil inventory is about 4114 million barrels, falling below the lowest level since 2014;
We estimate that if Russian crude oil is severely sanctioned, there will be a gap of 1.8 million barrels / day in global crude oil supply and demand
IEA previously predicted that Russia’s crude oil supply will decrease by 3 million barrels per day by April, and then the decrease will further expand; Goldman Sachs predicts that due to the impact of sanctions, Russia’s crude oil supply may be reduced to 4 million barrels per day; We assume that the total supply of Russian crude oil will be reduced by about 3 million barrels per day, of which, according to the official guidelines of Russia, the output of Russian crude oil will be reduced by about 1 million barrels per day in 2022; Due to the impact of sanctions, Russia’s crude oil supply decreased to 2 million barrels / day. Then there will be a gap of 1.4/1.8/1.5 million barrels / day in 22q2 / Q3 / Q4 global crude oil supply and demand; The supply is tight, and the crude oil price may remain high and volatile in 2022.
Investment suggestion: the high oil price in 2022 will fluctuate, superimposed with the energy policy, and promote the high prosperity of the oil service industry. Recommend China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , which is in the leading position in the industry.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation has worsened, greatly reducing global oil demand; The negotiations of OPEC + major crude oil producers failed, resulting in a significant increase in production and an imbalance between supply and demand; The United States has vigorously exploited shale oil, and the supply has increased significantly, impacting the crude oil market; Carbon neutralization policy, accelerate the development of new energy and reduce the demand for crude oil.
