Event:
The post office released the express operation data and development index report in April 2022. In April 2022, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 7.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; Business income reached 74.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%; The express delivery development index was 241.3, down 3.9% month on month.
Comments:
Under the impact of the epidemic, express delivery was under pressure in April, and the competition pattern was stable and good. According to the State Post Office, in April 2022, the National Express business volume was 7.48 billion pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; The revenue of express delivery business reached 74.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, mainly due to the spread of the current round of epidemic to 31 provinces and cities except Tibet. The number of new cases in a single day in Shanghai once exceeded 10000. Under the restriction of epidemic prevention policy, the production and consumption ends were limited, and the express transportation was blocked. In April, the express delivery development index was 241.3, down 3.9% month on month, of which the development scale index and development capacity index decreased by 11.8% and 9% month on month respectively, but the service quality index and development trend index increased by 7.1% and 5.1% month on month respectively, and the average ticket income of the industry was 9.9 yuan, up 2.1% year on year. The industry competition has changed from price competition to service quality competition. In the long run, the competition is gradually rationalized.
The rising cost drives the single ticket price up. In April 2022, the express business volume of SF, Yunda, Shentong and Yuantong was 747 million, 1132 million, 791 million and 1246 million respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.43%, 19.37%, 7.70% and 4.81% respectively; The average ticket income was 15.4 yuan, 2.53 yuan, 2.57 yuan and 2.51 yuan respectively. The average ticket income of Shunfeng decreased by 2.78% year-on-year, and the average ticket income of Yunda, Shentong and Yuantong increased by 24.02%, 20.66% and 16.74% year-on-year respectively. Among them, SF took the initiative to reduce e-commerce products with low gross profit margin, resulting in a double-digit decline in business volume. Affected by the epidemic in Taiyuan logistics park, Shanxi, Yunda’s express delivery volume decreased significantly, while Tongda’s average express ticket income increased significantly, mainly due to the low base year-on-year and the sharp rise in 2022q1 logistics costs caused by fierce price competition in the same period last year.
Investment strategy: in April, the epidemic caused pressure on the express logistics supply chain and a sharp decline in business volume, but the average ticket income of SF and Tongda express companies was basically the same as that in March, and the rationalization trend of industry competition was confirmed. The current round of epidemic situation is basically under control. The social aspects of 16 districts in Shanghai have been cleared, the number of new cases in China has dropped to three figures, and the resumption of work and production in important grain producing areas such as Zhejiang has been steadily promoted. In late May, Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) , Taobao and jd.com will successively launch the “618” promotion. It is expected that the express demand in the areas affected by the epidemic may rebound significantly or promote the average ticket price to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the repair opportunities of express demand after the epidemic is controlled, recommend continuous optimization of product structure, and the profitability is expected to improve quarterly. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ( S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ) with prominent valuation advantages at present; Average ticket income increased against the market Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ), etc.
Risk tips: intensified industry competition, changes in industry policies, repeated covid-19 epidemic, macroeconomic fluctuations, etc.
