\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) )
Key points of the report:
Investment advice
The company is a leading enterprise of ecological Baijiu in China, with a deep core team. The potential energy of Dongzang series has risen, superimposed on the general trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading in Anhui Province, and sustained high growth is expected. The company is rated as "buy". We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 24 years is RMB 1.778/22.582788 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28.7% / 27.0% / 23.5%, corresponding to 26 / 20 / 17 times of PE on May 19 (market value of RMB 46.1 billion).
Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) n: the leading enterprise of ecological Baijiu in China
The company is a leading enterprise in China's ecological Baijiu industry. It has Anhui " Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) brand" dating back to 106 B.C., and the potential of Dongzang series has risen. Mr. Ni Yongshi, the chairman and the controlling shareholder of the company, has a stable and efficient management team of 66.74%. By 2021, the company has a design capacity of 80000 tons, an actual output of 51100 tons and 177300 tons of semi-finished wine. 21a, the company realized a revenue of 4.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.58%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.382 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.96%; 22q1, the company's revenue + 37.23%, net profit attributable to the parent company + 49.07%, with strong growth momentum.
Huijiu: strong growth momentum
1) the growth momentum of Baijiu liquor market is strong: according to the data of liquor manufacturers, the market scale of Baijiu in Anhui Province will be about 35billion yuan in 2021. The core driving force of Anhui wine growth comes from the rapid economic growth and consumption upgrading of Anhui Province. In 2021, the per capita disposable income of Anhui Province reached 30900 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.97%, the per capita consumption expenditure was 21900 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.07%, and the provincial GDP was 4.30 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.3%.
2) Anhui liquor occupies the dominant position in the Baijiu market in Anhui: Anhui liquor presents a pattern of "one super and two strong". In 2021, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) / Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) / Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) anhui market share is 32.32%/11.65%/7.81% respectively, and CR3 reaches 51.78%. Anhui liquor occupies a dominant position in the medium and high-end and secondary high-end markets in Anhui Province.
The potential energy of cave reservoir has risen and can be increased continuously
1) the potential energy of Dongzang has risen: the potential energy of Dongzang series of the company has risen and ushered in a rapid growth stage. From the epidemic stress test in 2020, it can be seen that after being affected by the pulse of the epidemic, Dongzang series not only did not slow down the growth, but accelerated the growth after the epidemic, so as to verify the potential energy of Dongzang series and the effectiveness of company management and channel reform.
2) "middle and high-end and sub high-end" are expected to continue to increase: under the trend of Baijiu liquor consumption upgrading, driven by the potential energy of the company's Dongzang series, dong6 and dong9 are rapidly expanding at the price band of 150300 yuan, Dong16 and dong20 are stable at the price band of Changshu Guorui Technology Co.Ltd(300600) yuan, Dongzang series products continue to upgrade, and the company's middle and high-end and sub high-end products are expected to continue to grow at a high speed.
The core team has a deep foundation and the depth of distribution is sinking
1) the brand has a long history and unique environment: the company has an Anhui " Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) brand" originated in 106 BC, has a unique natural environment and high-quality water source, and its production base is located in the first batch of national ecological protection areas (Huoshan County, Anhui Province) and in the famous Chinese wine belt at 30 degrees north latitude. The water source of the company is cut from the mountain spring filtered by bamboo roots. It inherits the traditional brewing process of "intangible cultural heritage" and achieves the unique natural quality of Yingjia.
2) deep core team and deep distribution: the company's core team has a strong foundation. Mr. Ni yongpei, chairman of the board, is a "Chinese brewing master", and Mr. Xiang xingben, chief engineer, is a representative inheritor of Anhui intangible cultural heritage project (Yingjia liquor traditional brewing technology). In terms of channels, the company adopts the small business system to sink to districts and counties in Anhui and prefecture level cities in Jiangsu, and has successfully established a strong in-depth distribution system.
Risk tips
The risk of economic fluctuation exceeding expectations, food safety risk and epidemic situation exceeding expectations.
