\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 541 Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) )
The new capacity supports the long-term development of the business and maintains the “buy” rating
The company announced that it had signed a framework agreement with Hubei Tuanfeng people’s government to build a green intelligent prefabricated steel structure building parts production base with an annual output of 380000 tons, mainly to build intelligent production lines for steel structure, steel pipe, steel truss floor support sector and enclosure wall sector, of which the vast majority of the new capacity is steel structure capacity. The total construction and production period is 24 months, the total investment of the project is about 2 billion yuan, and the planned land area is about 760 mu. Considering that Hubei Tuanfeng production base is a mature production base of the company, this signing will further enhance the production capacity of Hubei Tuanfeng base. We expect that the production capacity of Hubei Tuanfeng is expected to reach about 900000 tons, providing an important guarantee for the development of the company’s steel structure product manufacturing and green prefabricated construction business.
This production expansion will further open the growth ceiling. It is estimated that the performance in 22-24 years will be RMB 14.0/17.5/2.03 billion, corresponding to pe1.5 billion 3 / 12.3 / 10.6x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Output and capacity utilization continued to exceed expectations, and orders are expected to remain good
In April 22, the output of steel structure products of the company was 280000 tons. Although affected by the epidemic, the output and capacity utilization rate still exceeded the expectations of the market and the company, or reflected a good demand and traffic recovery trend. At present, the company has gradually resumed normal production, with significant policy reinforcement, and is expected to recover the demand affected by the epidemic in the early stage. We judge that the company will continue to benefit from the improvement of demand and the mitigation of the epidemic in May, The output is expected to exceed 300000 tons, which continues to improve month on month. 22q1 is the bottom of the company’s fundamentals. We judge that q2-4 fundamentals will improve quarter by quarter, and orders are expected to maintain a good trend.
The production and sales volume is expected to be replenished, and it is expected to realize steady production expansion in 22 years
The target production capacity of the company is 5 million tons in 22 years and 4.2 million tons at the end of 21 years. The production expansion speed in 21 years is slightly slower than the market expectation, but the production expansion speed in 22 years is expected to increase, and the production release speed in the first half of the year is expected to be faster, which supports the annual output. According to wind, the average price of 22q1 steel sector increased by about 6% – 8% on average, and that of 21q4 increased by 22% – 28% year-on-year, which is higher than the growth rate of Q1 revenue of the company. We judge that the Q1 sales volume of the company may decline year-on-year. With the continuous improvement of the follow-up epidemic, the company is still expected to make up the production and sales volume in the rest of the year.
Optimistic about medium and long-term growth and maintain the “buy” rating
Although the operation of Q1 company is under certain pressure, we believe that the medium and long-term growth of the company has not been affected, and the industry concentration may be accelerated in the downward period of the industry. We believe that if the epidemic returns to normal quickly, the company is still expected to catch up with the backward progress in the remaining time. We continue to be optimistic about the growth sustainability brought by the company’s continuous production expansion, increment and quality improvement, and the company is expected to benefit from the industries brought by steady growth and guaranteed housing volume in 2022 β， oneself α It also continues to show that the double increase of output and net profit per ton is expected to continue to be realized. We maintain the profit forecast. We expect the EPS of 22-24 years to be 2.64/3.29/3.83 yuan. At present, the comparable company’s 22-year wind unanimously expects the PE to be 13 times. The company’s business model and cost control ability are significantly better than the industry average. We give PE 25 times in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 66 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the continuous rise of steel price has a greater impact on profits than expected; The improvement rate of the company’s capacity utilization is lower than expected; The impact of epidemic control exceeded expectations; The implementation of the agreement is uncertain
