\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Event: the company released its operating data for April: the company achieved a total revenue of 18.227 billion yuan in April, yoy + 29.45%. Among them, the express business achieved a revenue of 11.506 billion yuan, yoy-8.47%; The business volume reached 747 million, yoy-10%; Single ticket income is 15.40 yuan, yoy + 1.65%; The revenue of supply chain business was 6.721 billion yuan, yoy + 345.39%. From January to April, the company achieved a total revenue of 78.024 billion yuan, yoy + 38.55%. Among them, the express business achieved a revenue of 51.098 billion yuan, yoy-3.86%; The business volume reached 3.177 billion, yoy-4.08%; Single ticket revenue increased by 0.82% year-on-year to 16.08 yuan; The supply chain business achieved a revenue of 26.926 billion yuan, yoy + 752.63%.
Affected by the epidemic, the express business fell year-on-year: according to the data of the State Post Office, the business volume of express service enterprises nationwide completed 7.48 billion pieces in April, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; Business income reached 74.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. With the weakening of the industry as a whole and the increasing uncertainty of the external environment, SF express achieved a revenue of 11.506 billion yuan in April, a year-on-year decrease of 8.47%; The business volume reached 747 million tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. On the one hand, the decline of express transportation business is due to the fluctuation of the company’s business volume due to the closure and control of the epidemic in some Chinese cities such as Shanghai. At the same time, as a material guarantee enterprise, it mainly undertakes the transportation of necessary materials in areas with serious epidemic. On the other hand, the company has actively optimized its product structure since the second half of 2021, and the number of low gross profit products has decreased year-on-year. However, it is worth noting that the company’s single ticket revenue showed a stable growth trend. In April, the single ticket revenue was 15.4 yuan / piece, with a year-on-year increase of 1.65%. It can be seen that the company did not lower the price in order to seize market share, but actively adjusted the market strategy, adhered to refined cost control, improved input-output efficiency, promoted the integration of four networks, strengthened the integration of site and line resources, and effectively reduced the operating cost, Profitability is expected to further improve.
International business grew rapidly and expanded the Southeast Asian market: Although the Chinese business was affected by the epidemic factors, the international business maintained a strong growth due to the merger of Kerry Logistics. In April, the total revenue of supply chain and international business reached 6.721 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 345.39%. From January to April, the cumulative revenue was 26.926 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 752.63%. The company plans to take advantage of Kerry Logistics’s mature local distribution network in Southeast Asia to jointly build a regional express network in Southeast Asia in 2022. In the future, it is expected to form a strong synergy with Kerry Logistics. In the field of cross-border e-commerce and international supply chain, the supply and transportation capacity structure will help SF open up the whole chain of cross-border logistics and realize the global expansion of business.
Profit forecast: at present, logistics policies are frequent, roads are gradually dredged, and express outlets in Shanghai are slowly resuming operation. Although express collection is suspended in Beijing and other epidemic areas, it is generally controllable. We believe that with the effective control of the epidemic and the introduction of local consumption promotion policies, online consumer demand is expected to continue to release. Under strict supervision, the price war eased, and the industry began to pay attention to service quality. The company’s direct marketing model has inherent advantages. At the same time, the company will continue to enjoy the cost optimization brought by four networks financing and fine operation. In addition, Ezhou airport is expected to be put into trial operation at the end of June 2022, which will provide strong growth power for timeliness, international business and supply chain. The bargaining power of the company’s products is superimposed upward, the cost is optimized, and the performance repair flexibility is large. It is estimated that in 2022 and 2023, the net profit will be 6.9 billion yuan and 8.9 billion yuan, yoy respectively + 62% and + 29%, and the EPS will be 1.41 yuan and 1.82 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE share price of a is 33 times and 26 times respectively. Therefore, we give investment suggestions on buying.
Risk tips: business growth slows down, price competition is fierce, new business development is less than expected, the production of Ezhou airport is less than expected, fuel costs rise, etc
