According to the latest media reports, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo, China’s three major mobile phone manufacturers, have informed suppliers that the supply volume from April to June 2022 will be reduced by about 20% compared with the previous plan.
Combined with the data recently released by the China Academy of communications and communications, in March 2022, the shipment of mobile phones in the Chinese market was 21.46 million, a year-on-year decrease of 40.5%. From January to March, the total shipments of mobile phones in the Chinese market totaled 69.346 million, a year-on-year decrease of 29.2%.
Pessimism in the smartphone market spread further. This is also evident in the performance of the A-share consumer electronics industry chain.
according to the statistics of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, the data show that among the 148 listed companies related to the consumer electronics industry chain, 71 companies returned to their parent in the first quarter, with a year-on-year decrease in net profit
Smartphone shipments fell
According to the aforementioned report, relevant people of Xiaomi disclosed that it originally planned to supply 200 million smartphones in 2022, but the supplier has been informed that it will be reduced to 160 million to 180 million. Vivo and oppo also reduced their orders from April to June and July to September by about 20% compared with the previous plan.
In fact, with the gradual saturation of 4G and large screen penetration, China’s smartphone market has shown fatigue. According to the data of China Academy of communications and communications, from 2018 to 2021, China’s mobile phone shipments were 414 million, 389 million, 308 million and 351 million respectively, with only a slight increase in the past four years.
5g doesn’t seem to bring a new wave of machine change. According to the data of counter point, an industry analysis company, the average replacement cycle of users has exceeded 31 months; The number of mobile phone users in China is only 24.3 months at the beginning of 2019.
The epidemic situation makes the industry worse. According to the analysis of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Research Report, the recent epidemic situation in China has repeatedly weakened the demand for mobile phones. Since March, affected by covid-19 epidemic situation, geographical conflict, inflation and other factors, it is expected that the demand for mobile phones in China will continue to weaken.
upstream wafer foundry Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) had a clear feeling that 28.7% of the company’s revenue in the first quarter came from smartphones, down 2.5% month on month, and said that the decline in this part of revenue was in line with the company’s market judgment and capacity allocation deployment
At the performance meeting last week, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) joint CEO Zhao Haijun analyzed that the stock markets such as consumer electronics and mobile phones have entered the de inventory stage and began a soft landing. Some customers even have five months of inventory in the mobile phone supply chain in some regions. It also judged that mobile phone shipments this year were at least 200 million less than expected, mainly in Chinese manufacturers and the Chinese market.
Coincidentally, the data show that among the 148 listed companies related to the consumer electronics industry chain, 71 companies returned to their parent in the first quarter, with a year-on-year decrease in net profit. Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) ( Hunan Goke Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300672) . SZ) and Anhui Tatfook Technology Co.Ltd(300134) ( Anhui Tatfook Technology Co.Ltd(300134) . SZ), with a decline of about 20 times 8126. SH), Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) ( Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) . SZ) first quarter net profit fell by more than 200%.
High end machine market may increase
In contrast to the above manufacturers, some brands are still optimistic.
It is reported that Apple will increase production by 10 million iphone13 pro in the second quarter, and Hon Hai, the main OEM, will also recruit workers on a small scale. In addition to meeting the orders for increasing production, it will also prepare for the new iphone14 to be launched in the second half of the year. Although the second quarter is the traditional off-season and the transition period of Apple’s new and old models, the sales of iphone13 Pro Series are strong, and the supply of this series is relatively short at present.
Senior research analysts at counterpoint research believe that the sales situation in the second half of the year will be better than that in the first half of the year. Apple will sell new machines in the fourth quarter of each year, driving the rise of some sales. At the same time, other brands will also release a lot of new machine sprint performance, and then add various promotion activities at the end of the year, which will stimulate the whole market.
For Samsung, people close to the supply chain said that the supply of more than 270 million units in 2022 was slightly higher than that in the previous year, and the supply chain was concentrated in South Korea and Vietnam. According to Google’s suppliers in the United States, 10 million units will be manufactured twice as many as last year in 2022.
It is not difficult to find that the above brands belong to manufacturers that occupy a place in the high-end market or grow rapidly.
Huawei’s high-end market is divided by Samsung and apple, which has an increasing voice in the industry. According to canalys’ latest report, Samsung led the market with 24% market share in the first quarter of 2022, up from 19% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Due to the growing market demand for iphone13 series, apple ranked second and its performance grew steadily in the first quarter.
It is also recognized in the industry that although the growth rate of smart phones slows down, there are still increments in the high-end machine market, which must be impacted by all brands.
According to the data of counterpoint research, the growth rate of global smart phones in 2021 was 7%, but last year, the market sales of global high-end smart phones (with an average wholesale price of more than US $400 or about RMB 2540) increased by 24% year-on-year, the highest ever, faster than the overall smart phone market. The 27% share of the high-end market in the global smartphone market has also reached an all-time high.
Some analysts believe that driven by the iterative demand of the market, the high-end smartphone market may continue to grow and exceed the growth rate of the global smartphone market. In addition, consumers’ longer replacement cycle can offset the loss of profits caused by the long replacement cycle through the high profits of high-end machines, so as to avoid falling into the trap of medium and low-end price war.
