[early trading strategy]
Technically, the Shanghai index retracts a small Yin cross. Although the stock index has first broken through the downward pressure line formed by the closing price line of the two high points on March 3 and April 6, there is still the suppression of the 30 day moving average above and the support of the 5-day and 10 day moving average below. At present, there is "pressure on the top and support under the bottom". In this position, the market urgently needs a direction choice. The choice of upward breakthrough still depends on whether the quantity can be effectively amplified. Gem refers to that the rebound is significantly weaker than that of the main board, and has not yet broken through the suppression of the downward pressure line.
U.S. stocks suffered another sharp decline overnight. From the trading situation of FTSE A50 stock index futures, the operation is relatively stable. We expect that the sharp decline of U.S. stocks may have a certain negative impact on today's a shares, but the overall impact is limited, and investors need not worry too much. At present, the market has entered the bottom consolidation period after the sharp decline. The total turnover of the two cities has always been maintained at the land volume level of about 800 billion yuan. The rotation speed of hot sectors is also fast, and the profit-making effect is general, which proves that it still takes some time for the recovery of market sentiment and confidence. From the perspective of policy and news, the determination of senior management to maintain stability and take care of the market can be seen. We firmly believe that the worst time has passed, and it is expected that after the bottom grinding process, the rebound market will start slowly. Generally speaking, the short-term trading opportunities are relatively limited at present. It is suggested to appropriately control the position in the short term, and investors can pay appropriate attention to the oversold rebound opportunities of science and technology growth stocks; For the medium and long term, it is suggested that investors can consider the following main lines with strong certainty: first, the main line of "stable growth". In the first quarter, major cities were greatly affected by the epidemic, making it more difficult to "stabilize growth" throughout the year. Fiscal and monetary policies may increase, and continue to pay attention to the new and old infrastructure, real estate, banks and other directions that benefit the most; Second, the main line of inflation Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices are rising rapidly. We can pay attention to investment opportunities in seeds, pesticides, fertilizers and other sectors. The midline can focus on investment opportunities for mandatory consumption; Third, the main line of post epidemic recovery. The epidemic has gradually taken a turn for the better, focusing on benefiting sectors such as hotels, tourism and retail.
[message side]
1. SASAC proposed that state-controlled listed companies should set an example in stabilizing the capital market
The three-year decisive battle of state-owned enterprise reform ended, and the reform of state-controlled listed companies was deepened and accelerated. On May 18, Weng Jieming, member of the Party committee and deputy director of the SASAC of the State Council, said that state-controlled listed companies should set an example in promoting the healthy and stable development of the capital market. Group companies should be active and responsible shareholders, encourage long-term holding of shares of listed companies, and timely increase the holding of shares of listed companies with undervalued value. Listed companies should timely implement share repurchase to enhance investor confidence.
2. In April, the cash bond trading volume of foreign institutional investors increased by more than 10% year-on-year, and the trend of foreign capital's long-term increase in Chinese assets remains unchanged
According to the data released by the China foreign exchange trading center on May 18, foreign institutional investors reached a total of 1020.2 billion yuan of cash bond transactions in April, an increase of 13% year-on-year and a decrease of 17% month on month. The trading volume accounted for about 5% of the total trading volume of the cash bond market in the same period. According to the data from the Shanghai headquarters of the people's Bank of China, overseas institutions showed a trend of reducing their holdings of Chinese bonds in April.
3. Multiple positive factors support the market of growth stocks
Since the Shanghai index rebounded from its low of 286365 on April 27, small and medium-sized market capitalization track stocks have become the main force of the rebound. Market participants said that in the early stage, the bottom of A-Shares has been proved and is currently in the repair period of risk appetite. Supported by multiple favorable factors, growth style stocks are expected to continue to lead the rise.
4. In April, the house prices in the first, second and third tier cities showed a downward trend month on month
On May 18, the changes in the sales price of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that among the 70 large and medium-sized cities in April, the sales price of commercial housing decreased, the number of cities increased, and the sales price of commercial housing in the first, second and third tier cities showed an overall downward trend month on month and continued to decline year on year.
