Macro categories:
U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% month on month in April. U.S. consumption performance is still resilient, which reduces the risk of short-term U.S. economic downturn to a certain extent. However, from the perspective of asset price performance, the boost to U.S. stocks and crude oil is limited. At present, the impact of austerity and economic downturn expectation on overseas assets is more obvious.
Recently, China’s economy is expected to show some optimistic signals. On the one hand, many ministries and commissions continued to release the signal of steady growth. After the positive signal was released at the Politburo meeting on April 29, all ministries and commissions continued to follow up. At present, the trend of steady growth of infrastructure has been relatively clear, and the expectation of real estate has also improved. On May 15, the CBRC of the central bank issued the notice on issues related to the adjustment of differentiated housing credit policies, Combined with a series of real estate deregulation policies such as reducing the proportion of down payment, relaxing house and loan recognition, relaxing sales restrictions and reducing loan interest rates in more than 100 cities in China since this year, they have indeed formed support for the real estate market at the expected level. High frequency data improved slightly in May. At the meso level, the land acquisition of real estate in April fell by more than 50% year-on-year, slightly better than the dilemma of falling by more than 60% year-on-year in March. The growth rate of excavator sales in China in April has not improved, but according to our research, the year-on-year decline in May may may may converge. At the micro level, the prosperity index of highway freight flow and freight hub throughput rebounded slightly, indicating that the blockage of China’s supply chain and logistics has improved.
The previous drag factors have also been cleared: Shanghai plans to fully lift the epidemic prevention blockade in June, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China has improved rapidly; We believe that the government has made greater efforts to improve the expected growth of “A-share” and “A-share” of industrial and building materials, and we are expected to have a greater support for the implementation of new policies such as “freezing” and “A-share” of industrial and building materials, which are expected to be issued by the government. We believe that the “A-share” of industrial and building materials is expected to have a more stable growth.
Crude oil chain commodities need to pay close attention to the process of the situation in Ukraine and Russia, and be vigilant against the adjustment risks brought by the US dumping of reserves and the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. Combined with the current situation that the situation in Ukraine and Russia is in a seesaw war, crude oil and crude oil chain commodities will remain high and volatile in the short term; In terms of non-ferrous commodities, the global dominant inventory of non-ferrous metals is at a historically low level year-on-year and month on month, but we also see adverse factors such as the high level of the US dollar index, the decline of European electricity prices and the rise of European natural gas inventories; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth, and with the support of La Nina climate, dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; Considering the continuation of overseas stagflation pattern, potential recession risk and geopolitical conflict risk in the future, and the global precious metal ETF position is still at an all-time high, we still maintain the view of bargain hunting and long of precious metals.
Policy (strong and weak sorting):
Commodity Futures: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, etc.), precious metals, domestic demand industrial products (chemical industry, black building materials, etc.) bargain hunting and long; Crude oil and its cost related chain, non-ferrous metal neutral;
Stock index futures: cautious.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
