Event:
According to the data released by the Ministry of finance, from January to April, the national general public budget revenue was 7429.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5% after deducting the tax rebate factors, and a decrease of 4.8% according to the natural caliber. The national tax revenue was 6231.9 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% after deducting the factors of retention and tax rebate, and a decrease of 7.6% according to the natural caliber; Non tax revenue was 119744 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4% over the same period last year. The national general public budget expenditure was 8093.3 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9% over the same period last year.
Key points:
The superposition of the epidemic situation, the retention and tax rebate, has significantly reduced fiscal revenue
Fiscal revenue fell sharply in April, mainly affected by the epidemic and tax rebates. In April, the growth rate of general public revenue was - 41.3%, even after deducting the amount of tax rebate, the year-on-year growth rate was - 4.9%, which was significantly worse than that in March. According to the Ministry of finance, the annual tax rebate and reduction in 2022 is about 2.5 trillion yuan, of which the new value-added tax rebate is about 1.5 trillion yuan. April was the first month of implementing large-scale tax rebate. The national value-added tax rebate was about 800 billion yuan, accounting for 37.5% of the revenue in April last year, which greatly suppressed the fiscal revenue. Meanwhile, affected by the epidemic in April, the start-up and logistics of enterprises were greatly impacted, resulting in lower revenue and profits and lower fiscal revenue.
The progress of expenditure has slowed down and is still biased towards infrastructure
From the perspective of expenditure items, the growth rate of expenditure on education, science and technology, culture, tourism, sports and media, social security and employment slowed down to 4.1%, 15.5%, 0.5% and 4.4% respectively. In addition, affected by the epidemic, health expenditure rose sharply in April, up 7.5% year-on-year. It is worth noting that infrastructure expenditure was weak last year. This year, the overall growth rate of import and export fell relatively, and the epidemic impacted consumption. As an important means of counter cyclical regulation, infrastructure is an important driving force for steady economic growth this year. In April, the growth rate of expenditure on Agriculture, forestry and water affairs was 12.9%, but the growth rate of expenditure on urban and rural community affairs and transportation slowed down slightly.
The performance of the land market continued to be sluggish
From January to April, the investment in real estate development decreased by 2.7% year-on-year; The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 20.9% year-on-year; The funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 23.6% year-on-year. This is the first time since last year that the growth rate of real estate development investment data has changed from positive to negative growth, which also reveals that the current real estate development investment shows a relatively weak trend. At present, some positive signals have emerged one after another. Since this year, the housing market easing policy has been first introduced from the third and fourth tier cities, and more and more first and second tier cities have joined the easing queue. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic and the gradual effectiveness of the policy, including the support of enterprise financing and the relaxation of the demand side of more key urban residents, the central bank has also recently lowered the lower limit of the first house mortgage interest rate, which will gradually boost market expectations, In the follow-up, we should continue to pay attention to the relevant policies of the first and second tier cities.
Risk tips:
Protracted epidemic situation; Global liquidity margin tightening; The Fed's interest rate hike and table contraction exceeded expectations; The geopolitical crisis in Europe has expanded.
