Ideal Q1, stable performance. The ideal delivery volume of the company in the first quarter was 31716 (+ 152.1%), and the vehicle sales revenue was 9.31 billion yuan (+ 168.7%). The gross profit margin of the company’s automobile sales in the first quarter reached 22.4%, and the rise in power battery costs was not fully transmitted to the company. It is expected that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will transmit cost pressure to the downstream from the second quarter, but the company will increase the ideal one price by 11800 yuan from April 1, which is expected to cover the rising cost pressure. However, the impact of the epidemic in the second quarter may reduce the scale effect of the company. Changzhou factory of the company is located in the center of the Yangtze River Delta. Affected by the epidemic, the delivery volume of the company in April was only 4167 (- 24.8%). The delivery guidelines for the second quarter given by the company ranged from 21000 units to 240 million units (+ 19.5% ~ 36.6%), and the corresponding revenue guidelines ranged from 6.16 billion yuan to 7.04 billion yuan (+ 22.3% ~ 39.8%).
In the first quarter, the company’s R & D expenses reached 1.37 billion yuan (+ 167%), and the company will launch a number of hybrid and pure electric models with increased programs in the future. At the same time, the intelligent driving algorithm will be self-developed in the whole stack. We believe that the R & D expenses of the company will still be in a period of rapid growth. The company focuses on the user experience and is good at product definition. It will continue to focus on the home user market. From 2023, the company will launch high-voltage pure electric models. In the medium and short term, the company will adopt two power forms of technical routes, in which SUV will be the main model and pure electric vehicle will adopt a new body shape, and strive to create a popular model in every 100000 price range.
Industry trends: Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) build 100000 tons of negative electrode integrated production capacity Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) signed a lithium carbonate supply agreement with China Innovation Airlines; As of April 22, the number of charging piles in China was 3.324 million, a year-on-year increase of 81.9%; Last week, the share price of new energy automobile industry chain company rebounded, and the net value of new energy theme fund rose.
Investment suggestion: with the strengthening of policy and auto enterprises, the penetration of new energy vehicles in the global market is ushering in a new round of acceleration, and the industry boom is rising. It is suggested to pay attention to the main line of new forces represented by Tesla and the catch-up process of new models such as Volkswagen, and recommend leading and second-line elastic targets. For the whole vehicle, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK), Geely Automobile (0175. HK) and ideal automobile (2015. HK) are highly recommended; In terms of battery materials, we strongly recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) ; Attention to electric control; For lithium battery equipment, it is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) ; For lithium and cobalt, it is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Risk tips: 1. The growth rate of electric vehicle production and sales slows down. With the continuous growth of the production and sales base of new energy vehicles, it will be more and more difficult to maintain a high growth rate, and the introduction of mainstream models for the public has become the key; 2. The price war in the industrial chain intensified. The continuous decline of subsidies and the continuous investment of new production capacity have led to the pressure of price reduction in all links of the industrial chain; 3. The influx of overseas competitors accelerated. With the growth of the Chinese market and the dilution of subsidy policies, the pace of overseas giants entering the Chinese market is accelerating, which has a new impact on the industrial pattern.
