Event: in April, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 7.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; Business income reached 74.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%.
(2) four express delivery companies released the operating data of April (original data, excluding the impact of changes in rookie settlement caliber):
[ S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) ] in April, the company’s express logistics business revenue was 11.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.47%; The business volume reached 747 million tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 10.00%; The single ticket revenue of express logistics business was 15.40 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.65%.
[ Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ] in April, the company’s express service revenue was 2.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%; The business volume reached 1.132 billion tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 19.37%; The single ticket income of express service was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.02%.
[ Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ] in April, the company’s express product revenue was 3.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.78%; The business volume reached 1.246 billion tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 4.83%; The single ticket income of express products was 2.51 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%.
[ Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) ] in April, the company’s express service revenue was 2.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.42%; The business volume reached 791 million tickets, a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%; The single ticket income of express service was 2.57 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.66%.
Business volume: the epidemic in April runs through the whole month, and the negative year-on-year growth of the industry is expected. The growth rate of listed enterprises is generally in line with expectations, and Yunda is significantly impacted by the one-time epidemic in Shanxi. In April, the express industry was seriously impacted by the epidemic. The city represented by Shanghai was sealed, a large area of trunk vehicles were stranded, and the freight logistics was poor. The growth rate of the express industry in April was – 11.9%, with a decline of about 9pts compared with that in March. From the perspective of the company, the growth rate of parts volume in April: Yunda – 19.4% (March + 4.4%), Yuantong – 4.8% (March + 5.1%), Shentong – 7.7% (March + 8.8%), Shunfeng – 10.0% (March – 7.9%).
(1) the growth rate of through parts volume in April was relatively bright in the accessible system (the growth rate of online shopping of physical goods in April was – 5.1%), which was still better than the market, and the absolute volume rose to the second in the industry;
(2) Yunda was affected by the confirmation of express workers in Qingxu County, Shanxi Province in early April, which led to the shutdown of network points in the province and the spillover to e-commerce sellers in other regions to reduce shipments. The one-time impact of the epidemic in Shanxi led to its growth rate falling significantly behind its peers;
(3) the growth rate of SF was slightly higher than that in March, which was in line with the industry trend as a whole. We paid attention to the impact of the company’s demand for anti epidemic support during the epidemic period;
(4) looking forward to the future, the recovery logic is being fulfilled, and the industry is expected to resume positive growth in May (according to the data of the Ministry of transport, the national average daily delivery volume from May 1 to 13 is 312 million, higher than the average daily delivery volume of 297 million in may 2021). At present, Shanghai is gradually unsealed, the epidemic situation of Beijing Express is controllable, the policy of ensuring smooth supply chain is implemented, the epidemic areas are orderly promoted to resume work and production, and the demand replenishment is expected to drive the growth rate in May; At the same time, we further pay attention to the further boost of demand by the follow-up 618 e-commerce. The industry has entered a recovery period, and the growth rate is expected to gradually pick up.
Price: the industrial unit price increased month on month, the unit price of Yuantong and Shentong increased month on month, and the unit price of Yunda and Shunfeng fell month on month. In April, the unit price of the industry increased by 2.1% year-on-year and 3.3% month on month, with positive year-on-year growth and obvious month on month improvement. In April, the unit price of non local parts was – 4.22% year-on-year and + 1.20% month on month. Prices of express delivery enterprises in April: SF + 1.65% year-on-year and – 0.77% month on month (down 0.12 yuan); Yuantong + 16.41% year-on-year and + 1.21% month on month (up 0.03 yuan); Yunda was + 24.02% year-on-year and – 2.32% month on month (down 0.06 yuan); Shentong was + 20.66% year-on-year and + 0.39% month on month (up 0.01 yuan).
(1) Yuantong: in April, the unit price increased by 3 points month on month and 4 points month on month after excluding the influence of rookie wrapping. We believe that the implementation of the company’s own price strategy is in place. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic, the institutional changes in grain producing areas and non grain producing areas have raised the average price;
(2) Yunda: in April, the unit price decreased by 6 yuan month on month. We believe that or because the epidemic has a great impact on the volume of the company, the company’s competitive strategy focuses on the share at different stages. At the same time, the change of cargo weight and the price base in March have an impact.
(3) Shentong: the unit price increased by 1 point month on month in April, and increased by 3 points month on month after excluding the influence of rookie wrapping, which is consistent with the trend of the industry and Yuantong.
(4) SF: the product structure was continuously optimized, and the unit price fell slightly in April.
(5) generally speaking, the price and volume of the epidemic in April were greatly disturbed, the situation faced by each company was different, the competitive strategy also had phased deviations, and small price fluctuations were normal. We believe that the current industry is generally stable. At the same time, the prices in major grain producing areas have been adjusted to form a more reasonable price ecology. We are optimistic about the stability and improvement of industry prices after the epidemic.
Main “grain producing areas”: the impact of the epidemic has led to obvious differentiation in the growth rate of parts, and the performance of South China is better than the market. (1) Yiwu: the growth rate of parts volume in April was – 12.8%; The unit price was 3.06 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.2% (+ 0.31 yuan) and a month on month increase of – 0.3% (- 0.01 yuan). (2) Guangzhou: volume growth in April + 4.8%; The unit price was 8.24 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.3% (- 0.28 yuan) and a month on month increase of + 12.5% (+ 0.92 yuan). (3) Jieyang: the growth rate of parts volume in April was – 1.8%; The unit price was 4.64 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.4% (- 0.21 yuan) and a month on month increase of + 26.7% (+ 0.98 yuan). Yiwu’s growth rate was slightly lower than the market, and the terminal price decreased slightly in April due to local industry competition; South China is less affected by the epidemic, and the growth rate of pieces is better than the market (the growth rate in Guangzhou is positive), and the prices in Guangzhou and Jieyang have improved significantly month on month.
In terms of market share, SF and Yuantong’s share increased, Yunda’s market share decreased significantly, and Shentong’s share decreased slightly. In April, the business volume market shares of the four express delivery companies were: SF 9.99% (mom + 0.58pts), Yunda 15.13% (mom -3.39pts), Shentong 10.57% (mom -0.98pts) and Yuantong 16.66% (mom + 0.07pts). Overall, the overall market share of the four express delivery enterprises in April was 52.35%, with a month on month ratio of – 3.72%. Among them, Yunda’s share decreased significantly, mainly affected by the spread of the epidemic in Shanxi, Shentong’s share decreased slightly, and Shunfeng and Yuantong’s share increased.
Investment suggestion: in April, the express logistics industry basically confirmed the worst time point, and the inflection point of the industry has been found in May. Optimistic about demand recovery and profit recovery. A shares we recommend: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : firmly promote high-quality development, continuously improve service and fine management, and have greater performance flexibility with the upward movement of price center Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : the company takes the lead in share, the unit price stabilizes, and enjoys the performance repair bonus. US stocks are optimistic about Zhongtong express: its share remains the first in the industry, its management level lags behind its peers, which is reflected in its business advantages, and its profitability continues to lead its peers. At the same time, we recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) : short-term operation adjustment in place, superposition of strict cost control, continuous improvement of the company’s performance, medium and long-term benefit timeliness, international and other diversified business layout, with growth and high configuration value.
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected; Price competition in the industry has intensified.
