Light and high-strength “black gold” is applied in military and civilian fields. Carbon fiber is an inorganic fiber with carbon content higher than 90%. It has light and high-strength mechanical properties, high temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, good conductivity and other excellent properties. It is known as the king of new materials and “black gold”. Polyacrylonitrile (Pan) based carbon fiber has excellent mechanical properties and a wide range of applications. It is the main product of carbon fiber today, and its output accounts for more than 90% of the total output of all carbon fibers in the world.
China’s demand growth rate is leading, and the localization rate is increasing year by year. The global demand for carbon fiber will reach 118000 tons in 2021, with a compound growth rate of 12.2% from 2015 to 2021; The compound growth rate of demand in the Chinese market in the same period reached 23.2%. In 2021, China’s total carbon fiber demand was 62400 tons, an increase of 27.7% over 2020; Among them, the sales volume of domestic carbon fiber is 29000 tons, and the localization rate reaches 46.9%. The proportion of domestic fiber is expected to exceed 60% by 2025; The target self-sufficiency rate of high-performance carbon fiber materials exceeds 80%.
Wind power is the most widely used field, and the demand of aerospace drives the development of high-performance carbon fiber. In 2021, the global demand for wind power carbon fiber was 33000 tons, followed by 18500 tons for sports and leisure and 16500 tons for Aerospace; Due to the high price of aerospace carbon fiber, the global demand amounted to US $1.19 billion, accounting for the highest proportion. In 2021, the demand of carbon fiber for wind power in the Chinese market was 23000 tons, accounting for 36%, followed by 17500 tons for sports and leisure, and 2000 tons for aerospace. Boeing’s demand for carbon fiber led to the great development of Japan’s Toray company in the 1980s and 1990s, while the demand of American national defense development promoted the development of hatch company; During the 14th Five Year Plan period, with the accelerated assembly of new models of China’s aviation equipment, the expansion of UAV applications and the promotion of the industrialization of domestic large aircraft, the demand for aerospace carbon fiber is expected to grow at a high speed.
The operating capacity of China, the United States and Japan exceeds 60% of the world, and Chinese enterprises catch up with breakthroughs in high-end fields. In 2021, China’s carbon fiber operation capacity reached 63000 tons, surpassing the United States for the first time and becoming the world’s largest capacity country. Large tow carbon fiber represented by the United States and small tow carbon fiber represented by Japan are the current global mainstream production technologies. As a technology intensive key new material for both military and civil use, domestic and independent production of high-performance carbon fiber is the only way. In recent years, China has successively broken through the thousand ton industrialization of T700, T800 and other high-performance carbon fibers. The products can cover various types of high-strength, high-strength medium modulus, high modulus and high-strength high modulus. The technical level and industrialization of core production enterprises continue to achieve new development.
Focus on the listed core manufacturers of high-performance carbon fiber in the aerospace field Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying, and the leader of aerospace composites Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) zt7 series carbon fibers and fabrics are applied to major aerospace products in stable batches, and the thousand ton line is put into operation to enhance the supply guarantee capacity Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) t300 shaped fiber series are supplied in stable batches. T800h, as the main material for the next generation of aviation equipment, is verified and promoted. Zhongfu Shenying has significant production capacity and cost advantages. It launched Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) and Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) aerospace projects to meet China’s commercial aviation carbon fiber demand Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) as the leader of aviation carbon fiber prepreg in China, the main industry of aviation new materials has accelerated.
Risk warning: the risk that the epidemic will affect the macro-economy and the downstream demand is less than expected; Production capacity improvement and digestion of risks less than expected; The risk of reducing the gross profit margin due to the price reduction of military products; The risk that the development and batch production progress of new models is less than expected.
