In April, the CSI 300 index fell by 4.9%, and the Shenwan automobile index fell by 9.1%. The short-term performance is relatively backward. In April, 1181000 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 47.6% and a month on month decrease of 47.1% due to the suspension of the epidemic in Shanghai, Changchun and other places; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 965000, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4% and a month on month decrease of 48.2%; Commercial vehicle sales were 216000, down 60.7% year-on-year and 41.6% month on month. In April, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 299000, with a year-on-year increase of 44.6% and a month on month decrease of 38.3%. The wholesale and retail penetration rates were 29.6% and 27.1% respectively. The impact of head enterprises was relatively small, with a month on month decrease, but still maintained a high growth year-on-year. At present, Shanghai, Changchun and other places have gradually resumed work and production. The bottom of production and sales volume was established in April, and the follow-up is expected to rise rapidly. In addition, considering the pillar role of the automobile industry in the national economy, the central and local governments may introduce stimulus policies, and the sector is expected to benefit. It is suggested to increase the allocation.
Main points
In April, the sales volume of passenger cars decreased significantly year-on-year. According to the data of the passenger Federation, in April, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 946000, a year-on-year decrease of 43.0% and a month on month decrease of 47.8%, and the retail sales volume reached 1042000, a year-on-year decrease of 35.5% and a month on month decrease of 34.0%. The suspension, shutdown and logistics transportation caused by the epidemic in Shanghai, Changchun and other places have a great impact, and the wholesale and retail sales have decreased significantly year-on-year. At present, Shanghai and Changchun have resumed production in succession. With the introduction of automobile consumption stimulus policies, the subsequent production and sales volume is expected to recover rapidly. In April, the sales volume of 120000 luxury brand passenger cars in China decreased by 54% year-on-year and 50% month on month. The main sales areas of luxury cars were seriously affected by the epidemic. Mainstream joint venture brands decreased by 42% year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the relatively large impact of the epidemic and chip shortage and the decline of brand attraction. Independent brands decreased by 19% year-on-year, and their overall performance was better than that of the industry. Independent head enterprises had strong industrial chain toughness and effectively solved the shortage pressure of chips. In addition, new energy sales performed well Byd Company Limited(002594) and other auto companies have performed relatively well, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
In April, the production and sales of commercial vehicles continued to be under pressure in the short term. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales of commercial vehicles in April were 216000, a year-on-year decrease of 60.7%. Among them, 191000 trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 62.0%; Affected by the full implementation of national VI emission in July 2021, some demands are overdrawn in advance, so the sales volume is under pressure in the short term. In the long run, the treatment of "large ton and small standard" will reduce the single vehicle capacity of the original light truck models exceeding the standard, which is expected to increase the sales of compliant light trucks and medium trucks. The sales of 25000 passenger cars decreased by 46.6% year-on-year, and the sales of large, medium and light passengers decreased by 35.4%, 43.9% and 48.0% year-on-year. With the improvement of China's epidemic situation and economic recovery, it is expected that the subsequent sales of large and medium-sized buses are expected to recover gradually.
In April, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year. In April, 299000 new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 44.6%. Under the influence of the epidemic, the trend of rapid development continued. The penetration rate of wholesale and retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 26000, with a year-on-year increase of 27000, up from 27000; Among them, the hot sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) Han / Qin / song / Tang / dolphin, Wuling Hongguang mini, QQ ice cream / Chery EQ make Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC GM Wuling and Chery perform well, and relevant auto enterprises and industrial chains are expected to benefit. The sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 19000, with a year-on-year increase of 38.8%; 3553 new energy buses above 6 meters were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, of which the sales of Fukuda OUHUI, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) ranked among the top three. The follow-up of new energy vehicles is expected to continue high growth. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant industrial chains.
From January to March, the revenue and profit of the automobile industry increased slightly. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to March 2022, the key enterprise groups of automobile industry realized an operating revenue of 995.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%; The total profit was 67.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. With the gradual recovery of the auto market, the operating revenue is expected to resume growth, and the total profit is expected to continue to grow, but the cumulative growth rate may decline.
Investment advice
Whole vehicle: the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to pick up quickly. We recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . The view of heavy and light trucks of commercial vehicles is expected to gradually recover, paying attention to Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) etc.
Parts and components: Recently, affected by the rise of raw material prices and the suspension of epidemic in many places, some stocks have made more corrections, and the current valuation has a strong attraction. With the resumption of work in Changchun and Shanghai, the sector has ushered in better allocation opportunities and is optimistic about the long-term development of high-quality enterprises. It is suggested to lay out individual stocks for product upgrading, customer expansion and valuation repair, recommend Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic Co.Ltd(002048) , and pay attention to Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , etc.
New energy: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to explode in 2022, with strong certainty of subsequent high growth. Recommend China's leading Byd Company Limited(002594) , as well as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , made by Tesla and Volkswagen MEB, and pay attention to Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , etc.
Smart Internet connection: ADAS and smart cockpit have penetrated rapidly, and Huawei Xiaomi and other industries have accelerated their development. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , pay attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) , Jingwei Hengrun, Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , etc.
Risk tips
1) the automobile sales volume is lower than expected; 2) Shortage and price rise of raw materials; 3) The price of products has been greatly reduced.
