\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000153) 00015)
Main points:
Private ophthalmology medical pioneer, first mover & snowball of scale advantage
Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) is the largest ophthalmic medical chain organization and the pioneer of ophthalmic medical services in the world at present. It has a history of nearly 20 years since its establishment in 2003; By the end of 2021, the company had opened 723 ophthalmic medical institutions worldwide, including 292 hospitals under Chinese listed companies, close to achieving full coverage in Chinese provinces and cities; The global network spans China, Hong Kong, Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia, with significant scale advantages. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 15.001 billion yuan, a CAGR of 30.66% from 2009 to 2021, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.323 billion yuan, a CAGR of 30.87% from 2009 to 2021. The net interest rate increased from 14.83% in 2009 to 16.47% in 2021. With the help of long-term accumulated brand reputation, profound brand culture and standardized and reproducible operation mode, the company’s new hospitals are rapidly mature, the old hospitals are continuously upgraded, and the density, breadth and depth of business coverage will continue to improve in the future.
Multidimensional competitive advantage lays the cornerstone of high-quality growth
1) “M & A fund + partner” mode breaks the double bottleneck of “talent and capital” in the expansion of private chain institutions and drives the expansion to speed up. Since the establishment of the M & A fund in 2014, the number of hospitals under the company has expanded rapidly from 50 at the beginning of 2014 to 292 at the end of 2021. There are still 318 medical institutions (hospitals & clinics) under the M & A fund, and the expansion demand can be realized smoothly in the future. 2) The comprehensive hierarchical chain and global ecological strategy helps the company continuously sink high-quality medical services and efficiently meet the personalized medical needs of patients while optimizing resource allocation and realizing efficient iteration of technical resources. At present, the company has the technical level beyond public hospitals in some provincial capitals. At the same time, the hierarchical chain network has completed 90% coverage in provincial capitals and 80% coverage in prefecture level cities. The 1 + 8 + n strategy in the new decade will continue to deepen the company’s hierarchical diagnosis and treatment network. 3) The construction of medical teaching and research system and talent training plan provide ophthalmic talents for the company and even the industry, and provide personnel and technical support for rapid expansion. By the end of 2020, there were more than 6000 ophthalmologists in medical institutions under Aier listed company and M & A fund, accounting for about 1 / 8 of the total ophthalmologists in China, and the talent accumulation effect was obvious. 4) Continuous innovation lays the foundation for the company’s long-term development. The company seizes new development opportunities. The proportion of high-end surgery has reached a high level and is still on the rise; Corneal shaping lens is the main force of the company’s optometry business, which is expected to increase both price and volume; Innovatively set up characteristic clinics such as dry eye clinic, make use of the advantages of global layout, continue to introduce new technologies and lead the new track.
The eye track continues to expand, and Aier leads the development of the industry
1) demand: the gradual deepening of aging in China, the gradual popularization of unhealthy lifestyle and other factors have led to the increasing incidence rate of eye diseases among Chinese residents; The growth of per capita consumption expenditure and the improvement of cognitive level lead to the increase of residents’ attention to eye health and the strong demand for ophthalmic medical services.
2) supply: the state has consistently encouraged social hospitals and focused on the development of eye health industry. Private ophthalmic medical institutions have developed rapidly, but the per capita available ophthalmic medical resources are still low compared with developed countries, and high-quality medical resources are scarce. 3) Market: the overall scale of ophthalmic medical service market has increased steadily, and the penetration rate of each sub circuit is low, which continues to expand the capacity for the development of the industry. 4) Trend: the high-end transformation of operation and service leads to the increase of guest unit price. Emerging tracks such as dry eye diagnosis and treatment and presbyopia surgery are the growth points in the future, and the market space is broad
Investment suggestion: for the first time, give a “buy” rating
The company is an absolute leader in private ophthalmic medical services. In the new decade, it will improve the hospital layout in accordance with the 1 + 8 + n strategy, build a world-class ophthalmic medical center, maintain performance growth through business endogenous growth and hospital extension M & A expansion, and create physician resource barriers through the medical teaching and research innovation platform to achieve long-term development. It is estimated that the company will realize a total operating revenue of RMB 18.5742292328.163 billion from 2022 to 2024, a year-on-year increase of + 23.8% / 23.4% / 22.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 3.071/4.019/5.162 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.2% / 30.8% / 28.5%; Corresponding to pe60 44/46.20/35.96x； For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risk management of hospitals under the M & A fund; Medical malpractice risk; The development of new hospitals is less than expected; Risk of large-scale outbreak of the epidemic; Industry competition intensifies.
