\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 068 Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Inc.Ltd(002068) )
Carbon black dragon head laid out new lithium battery materials, opened up future growth space, and gave a "buy" rating for the first time
The company has been deeply engaged in the carbon black industry for many years, with a carbon black production capacity of 1.1 million tons, which is the leader of the carbon black industry. With the recovery of domestic demand and improvement of external demand for carbon black, the price of carbon black has continued to rise since Q2 in 2022, and the profit of carbon black business is expected to be repaired upward. According to the company's announcement, the company plans to lay out high-end lithium battery materials, develop new production capacity of high-end conductive carbon black and 5000 tons of carbon nanotubes, and establish a joint venture with Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) to build 50000 tons of PVDF production capacity by the joint venture, so as to further open up the future growth space. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 336 million, RMB 707 million and RMB 1047 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.45, RMB 0.94 and RMB 1.40 respectively. At present, the corresponding PE of the stock price is 24.4, 11.6 and 7.8 times respectively, and the "buy" rating is given for the first time.
The market space of conductive agent is broad, and the company is expected to grow into a leader in the conductive agent industry
With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the continuous growth of energy storage demand, the global installed capacity of lithium batteries may increase rapidly in the future. We predict that the global shipment of lithium batteries is expected to reach 2140gwh in 2025, the corresponding demand for conductive carbon black is 112300 tons, the market space of conductive carbon black may reach 7.9 billion yuan, and the whole market space of conductive agent may reach 27 billion yuan. At present, the conductive agent has begun to develop in the direction of composite conductive agent. We believe that enterprises with R & D and production capacity of a variety of conductive agent materials in the future can provide more complete comprehensive solutions for conductive agent and are more hopeful to stand out in the market competition of conductive agent. The company makes great efforts to layout the production capacity of conductive carbon black and carbon nanotube. With its large-scale chemical advantages, it is expected to provide low-cost integrated solutions for composite conductive agents in the future and become a new force in the conductive agent industry.
The carbon black boom is back on the rise, and the company's low performance may have passed, which is expected to fully benefit from the expansion of carbon black price difference
In Q1 2022, affected by large-scale events and Spring Festival factors, the operating rate of the downstream tire industry was low, the carbon black boom was down, and the net profit attributable to the parent company turned into a loss year-on-year. With the recovery of the operating rate of the tire industry after the festival, China's carbon black demand has recovered rapidly. Affected by local international conflicts, in order to ensure the stable supply of carbon black, European tire factories actively purchased Chinese carbon black, and the external demand for carbon black continued to improve. Domestic demand recovers, external demand improves, and carbon black boom rises. At present, the carbon black price difference continues to expand. In the future, the company's carbon black business profit is expected to repair upward, and the performance low may have passed. The company has a carbon black production capacity of 1.1 million tons, with great performance flexibility, and is expected to fully benefit from the expansion of carbon black price difference.
Risk warning: product R & D or verification is not as expected, product prices have fallen sharply, and the macro economy has declined.
