\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 779 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) )
Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) publish the annual report of 21 and the quarterly report of January 22. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 4.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%, net profit of 1.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.0%, and earnings per share of 2.45 yuan. 1q22 achieved revenue of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, net profit of 360 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, and earnings per share of 0.74 yuan / share. Q1 results were lower than expected.
Key points supporting rating
Focus on the secondary high-end, achieve high growth on a low base, improve the incentive mechanism, and increase revenue and net profit by 54% and 64% respectively in 2021. (1) In 2021, the company focused on three strategies: new product upgrading, high-end brand and marketing breakthrough, focusing on sub high-end and above product lines, and achieved rapid growth in No. 8 and well pad. (2) In 2021, the company took many measures to optimize the value chain, with the wholesale price and transaction price increased. The price increase of products in the second quarter made a positive contribution to the revenue. (3) In terms of subregions, the company focuses on eight core markets, and the revenue growth rate of these markets is higher than the average level. (4) The core executives have worked in world-class liquor enterprises with rich management experience. The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan to motivate the core backbone above the middle level, and the team has strong combat effectiveness. (5) In 2020, the company's statements truly reflected the impact of the epidemic, with revenue and net profit falling by 15.1% and 11.5% respectively, with a low performance base.
1q22's revenue and net profit were + 14.1% and - 13.5% year-on-year respectively. The spread of the epidemic affected shipments and increased advertising investment in stages. (1) The epidemic spread after the Spring Festival. As Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) pays more attention to the health of the channel system, we judge that the shipment speed after the festival may slow down significantly. (2) 1q22 sales expense rate was 29.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3pct, which may be due to the phased increase in advertising investment due to the cooperation with China ice and snow.
Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) product positioning is clear, the channel model continues to upgrade, and the long-term development is worth looking forward to. (1) The company's business goal in 2022 is to increase revenue and net profit by about 15%. We believe that the annual performance is expected to exceed the target planning. (2) Benefiting from the high price of high-end wine and consumption upgrading, the secondary high-end price belt will continue to expand rapidly Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) positioning is clear, focusing on sub high-end and above product lines, brand building and advertising investment are high, and brand influence continues to improve. (3) The channel model has been continuously upgraded, and a high-end wine company has been established to avoid the shortcomings of the channel and help the rapid growth of collections and above high-end products. According to the records of the company's investor relations activities, in the second half of the year, the company promoted 25 dealers to establish Chengdu Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) high-end Baijiu Sales Co., Ltd. in the past half year, it recruited about 200 merchants and opened up more than 2000 enterprise customers. Over the past six months since the listing of the new collection, the social dynamic sales have increased by about 60%. It is expected to become a large single product in the next two or three years. (4) The company just held an online press conference on the new well platform in April, which has a good effect. If the epidemic situation is alleviated, the company will conduct tasting activities everywhere, and it is expected that the well platform will maintain a rapid growth rate.
Valuation
According to the financial report, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.94, 3.79 and 4.66 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, 29% and 23%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The spread of the epidemic affects demand. The operation of high-end liquor companies did not meet expectations.
