\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
Events
On May 15, the Shanghai Municipal People's government issued the notice on printing and distributing the 14th five year plan for energy development in Shanghai. The plan points out that offshore wind power will focus on promoting the development of wind power in Fengxian, Nanhui and Jinshan sea areas, explore and implement far-reaching sea area and onshore decentralized wind power demonstration pilot, and strive to increase the scale of 1.8 million KW.
The wind power industry is in a high boom.
Under the guidance of the national 2060 carbon neutral target, non-aqueous power generation such as wind and light will become a powerful model to replace traditional energy. Many places have successively launched wind power development plans and installed capacity targets during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and wind power construction is expected to be further accelerated.
The performance is under pressure in the short term, and the factory has full production scheduling to catch up with the loss of production capacity
In the first quarter of 2022, the company's production side Taicang, juancheng and Puyang factories, demand side logistics and customer demand were affected by the epidemic. 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 728 million yuan, down 48% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33 million yuan, down 93% at the same time. At present, the production capacity of the onshore tower is expected to return to normal in May. Among them, Baotou factory, Shangdu factory and Tongliao factory in the North actively maintain flexible production expansion to catch up with the production capacity lost due to the epidemic from January to April. The onshore tower currently has an order of 800000 tons, and the production schedule of each factory is full.
Optimistic about the business elasticity and profit brought by Haifeng power station
Blade: 2022 is an important year for capacity layout and new customer expansion. It will have a supply base of more than 25 lines of super large blades (90m +) with a planned annual capacity of 2000 sets (more than 10GW).
Sea breeze: the production capacity layout of sea breeze has been opened, the factories under construction are progressing smoothly, and new projects are being carried out in an orderly manner.
Power station: the company is currently under construction and has obtained a total of 1.1gw indicators, including 500MW project in Ulanqab area, Inner Mongolia and 600MW project in Hubei. The company expects the project in Ulanqab area to be completed within this year and connected to the grid with full capacity.
Investment advice
We had expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 would be 1.34 billion yuan, 1.56 billion yuan and 2.3 billion yuan; Considering the impact of the epidemic, the intensification of industrial competition and the impact on the company's profit in 22 years after the rush for loading in 2021, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years is adjusted to be 1.34 billion yuan, 2.1 billion yuan and 2.76 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 15x, 9x and 7x. Although the performance in 22 years has been reduced, with the gradual repair of the epidemic and the continuous upward trend of wind power landscape, the company's onshore tower business is expected to maintain stable growth, and the sea wind and power station business will bring new performance flexibility, Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected production capacity, and the risk of falling demand for wind power orders.
