\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 487 Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) )
Events
On May 17, the whole Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) consumption monitoring and Early Warning Center released the evaluation and analysis of whole Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) power consumption in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter, the installed capacity of wind power increased by 7.9 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%.
The performance is under pressure in the short term, and the improvement of product structure is expected to improve the gross profit level
The installed capacity of wind power increased steadily. In the first quarter of 2022, the company mainly shipped products of onshore wind towers, and most of them were orders carried forward from last year. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the shipment volume was lower than the company’s plan, and the effect of dilution of fixed costs was weakened. The company achieved a revenue of 934 million yuan in 22q1, an increase of 55% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 62 million yuan, down 19% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of 61 million yuan, down 14% at the same time. In the future, the company will continue to improve its product structure, add the proportion of wind power products and export products, and then improve the overall gross profit level of the company.
The sea and land production capacity is released steadily, and the volume of new business can be expected
Capacity: the overall design capacity of the company in 2022 is 1.2 million tons, an increase of 200000 tons over 2021, of which the capacity of Penglai base is increased by 100000 tons through technical transformation. The first phase of the new base Yangjiang base is expected to be completed and put into operation on June 30, with a planned capacity of 100000 tons in the second half of the year.
New business: relying on the tower business sector, the company has entered the field of wind farm development, the project is progressing smoothly, and the blade manufacturing industry sector is laid out horizontally.
Land and sea two wheel drive strategy: in the field of tower, the company continues to focus on the established “land and sea two wheel drive strategy”, the land business growth point layout around the three Peking University bases, and give full play to the location advantages of Dajin Penglai Dajin port, focusing on offshore and overseas projects. In terms of overseas business, the company laid out its European business before the epidemic, achieved remarkable transformation in the past two years, and developed and cooperated with many customers in Europe, Britain, Poland, Germany and other countries.
Investment advice
In the early stage, we expect the company’s revenue to be 7.35 billion yuan and 13.39 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 1.01 billion yuan and 1.76 billion yuan. Considering the intensified competition in the industry and the impact on the company’s profit after the sea breeze rush in 2021, the company’s revenue in 22-24 years is adjusted to 7.53 billion, 10.15 billion and 12.28 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 660 million, 980 million and 1.23 billion respectively, corresponding to 22, 15 and 12 times PE. The company’s sea and land capacity is released steadily, continues to promote the “land and sea two wheel drive strategy”, is optimistic about the future performance growth and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected production capacity, and the risk of falling demand for wind power orders.
