Looking back on Wednesday’s A-share market, after the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher, the stock index fluctuated repeatedly in the morning and dived and rose again, accompanied by the relay rise of small cap stocks; Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded in the afternoon, and the three major indexes collectively turned red, but the persistence was not strong enough. They fell again near the end of the day, and the three major indexes closed green slightly.
As stated in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) above, the current market starts to see long and short around the 3100 point integer level, which is temporarily maintained in a moderate shock range. As there are many uncertain factors outside China at this stage and there is no obvious signal for the follow-up development direction , from the perspective of operation, investors can continue to choose low positions for short-term hot spot trading, Wait for the obvious inflection point signal in the market before further follow-up operation.
Technically speaking, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that on Wednesday, the A-share market rose and was blocked, and the stock index continued to consolidate below 3100 points throughout the day. At present, the average p / E ratios of Shanghai Composite Index and gem index are 12.46 times and 36.53 times respectively, which are below the median level in recent three years; The trading volume of the two cities on Wednesday was 770.4 billion yuan, which was in the median area of daily average trading volume in recent three years.
As far as the future is concerned, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that in terms of policy, the recent warm wind has played a very positive role in stabilizing market sentiment. At the same time, the rapid adjustment in the early stage has made the overall valuation of the market enter a reasonable valuation area. The market bottomed out and rebounded, and the index continued to fluctuate upward, and continued the rebound trend since the end of April in May.
However, under the restraint of external conflicts and China’s economic downturn, the market risk appetite has been suppressed, the upward trend is weak, and the rebound space of the index may be relatively limited. In the near future, it may be necessary to pay attention to the periodic decline . The medium-term proposal focuses on the market value stocks, the real estate chain and the oversold growth sector. The market is active and funds have been constantly switching to find opportunities. In the short term, we can focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises and Shanghai local stocks .
In addition, Rongwei Securities believes that it takes time for A-Shares to bottom, but the resistance of periodic long is less than that of short . At present, the valuation of the A-share market has been at an all-time low, and the stocks of most sectors are Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) in. Although the position level of some 10 billion yuan private equity funds is not high, they have high expectations for the future market. The index is expected to usher in an inflection point in the third quarter, when the position level of private equity funds will be greatly improved.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that with the continuous introduction of China’s policies to stabilize growth and protect the economy, the superposition effect of the policies will gradually appear, at present, the market is still in the state of game of stock funds, the structural market of shock bottoming is expected to continue, and the upward attack of the short-term index is weak. The consolidation action of pulling back to the vicinity of 3000 is not ruled out in the future . In terms of operation, if the volume of the stock index can continue to shrink to around 300 billion or there is a form of Zhongyin and needle K-line (single needle or multi needle bottom), we can consider increasing the position. Pay attention to the policy coverage of state-owned enterprise reform, specialization, special innovation and cold chain logistics.
Macroscopically, Huabao Securities said that the short-term negative impact caused the decline of economic data. We are more concerned about how many damaged industrial chains can be boosted again in the future with the strong support of policies, and the speed and extent of repair from the recent meeting and the government’s statement, we can see that the steady growth policy will strengthen its support for the economy .
At present, monetary policy guides commercial banks to increase credit support to entities by creating new refinancing tools and strengthening deposit interest rates, so as to promote the reduction of comprehensive financing costs of enterprises. In terms of fiscal policy, the issuance of special bonds will also be added. It is expected to start with infrastructure construction. The follow-up monetary and fiscal policies will be further strengthened. The effect of the strong policy is worthy of attention .
In terms of operational strategy, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) mentioned that from the structural point of view, it focuses on four main lines : 1) with the gradual rise of inflation expectations, the CPI related agricultural and other essential consumer goods sector is still the main line of the year; 2) The industries related to offline economy such as express logistics, catering, tourism, airport aviation and media are expected to be repaired; 3) Benefit from the depreciation of the exchange rate of RMB in the industries of industry, textile, electronics, automobile, home appliance, etc; 4) Traditional consumption sectors such as food and beverage, household appliances and medicine, which are less disturbed by the epidemic, are also expected to usher in a turnaround.
What are the opportunities for consumer stocks for the recent hot topics Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that the recovery of consumption after the epidemic is a slow variable, but the stage with the greatest and deepest impact on consumption is passing. China’s consumption potential is still huge, but in the early stage of consumption recovery, we should give priority to the direction of higher performance certainty and Optimization on the supply side: 1) strong profit certainty and cash flow improvement: Baijiu; 2) The pressure on gross profit margin eased: Automobile and food; 3) Supply side optimization and concentration increase: pigs, consumer services, etc.
In addition, what investment opportunities exist in digital economy Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that based on overseas experience and the current development stage of China’s digital economy, core technology, infrastructure, digital manufacturing and network security are expected to become the key directions in the future.
1) core technology field: Although the scale of China’s digital economy has increased steadily and the volume has been relatively huge, there is still a large gap in the field of digital core technology compared with developed countries. Cloud computing, industrial Internet and other “neck” fields will become the key direction.
2) network infrastructure: with the explosive growth of digital volume, the construction and upgrading of network infrastructure is essential. In the long run, the construction of digital network infrastructure is still an important demand for long-term development and is expected to become an important engine of steady growth.
3) digital manufacturing: at present, there is a huge demand for industrial digitization in China’s financial and industrial fields. Under the goal of 45% industrial Internet penetration in 2025, the process of subsequent industrial digitization is expected to accelerate. Under the background of strong industrial foundation and manufacturing scale, the domestic industrial software industry is expected to usher in a golden period of development.
4) digital public service: first of all, from overseas experience, the digitization of public service will drive the common development of manufacturing, retail and other industrial fields, and the development cost performance is relatively high; Secondly, with the implementation of current measures such as “site code” and “digital sentry”, digital governance will become an indispensable part of scientific epidemic prevention. Under the background of increasing demand, relevant IT manufacturers are expected to benefit.
5) digital security: the explosive growth of data and information value will also trigger a series of network security problems. In addition, in recent years, with China’s increasing attention to network security, the scale of network security has also ushered in rapid growth. Under the background of increasing downstream demand, network security will usher in rapid development, and key network security head manufacturers are expected to benefit.
