In December, the passenger flow increased slightly, the passenger unit price decreased slightly, and the average store sales of physical retail pharmacies decreased slightly month on month. In December 2021, the fixed base index of customer unit price of physical retail pharmacies was 99, slightly lower than that of 100 in November. The passenger flow increased slightly, the passenger unit price decreased slightly, and the average store sales of physical retail pharmacies decreased slightly month on month. The change of passenger flow is mainly affected by the epidemic situation, and the change of passenger unit price is mainly affected by the fluctuation of drug price. It is expected that with the gradual control of the epidemic, the passenger flow will pick up significantly. Under the influence of the rising prices of traditional Chinese medicine and proprietary Chinese medicine, the passenger unit price will still maintain a high position, and the average sales of stores will have a strong driving force to pick up.
The passenger flow index rose slightly in December. In December 2021, the base index of passenger flow of physical retail pharmacies was 79, slightly higher than 78 in November. The epidemic situation in some areas has little impact on passenger flow. However, compared with before the epidemic, the passenger flow is still in a relatively low state. In the second half of 2021, it remains at the level of 74-82% in the same period in 2019, and the overall passenger flow has not been significantly improved.
The passenger unit price decreased slightly in December. In December 2021, the fixed base index of customer unit price of physical retail pharmacies was 124, slightly lower than 128 in November. In terms of categories, the price of Chinese patent medicine increased significantly, and the chemical medicine and health care products decreased slightly month on month, resulting in a slight decrease in the final customer unit price index month on month. Compared with that before the epidemic, the passenger unit price in December remained at a high level. Since August 2021, the passenger unit price has increased by about 20% compared with the same period in 2019. The fixed base index of customer unit price of physical retail pharmacies was 99, slightly lower than that of 100 in November.
Jilin, Tianjin and Yunnan stores are among the top in sales. In terms of provinces and regions, the average sales of stores in Jilin, Tianjin and Yunnan are 119, 118 and 118 respectively, which are significantly higher than those in other provinces and regions. Limited by the low temperature in Northeast China, the average sales index of stores in Shaanxi and Heilongjiang is below 90, which is relatively poor.
Investment suggestion: on the whole, in the fourth quarter of 2021, on the basis of the sharp rise of passenger unit price, although the recovery of passenger flow is not obvious, the average store sales basically returned to the same period in 2019, and the recovery range of Q3 is more obvious. From the average value of average store sales, the average value of average store sales in 2021q3 is about 89 and Q4 is 99, with a month on month improvement of about 10%. We expect that in 2021q4, the retail pharmacy industry will pick up as a whole and the performance of leading pharmacies will improve month on month. It is recommended to pay attention to Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) . From the perspective of performance elasticity, due to the large increase in average store sales in Yunnan, retail pharmacy enterprises mainly located in Yunnan will benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) .
Risk warning: the performance of listed companies is less than the expected risk; Industry competition intensifies; Drug prices fell.
