Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing throughout the year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. In the short term, the index fell once after continuous consolidation, which is often the specific performance before the change. With the stability of fundamentals and the opening of the monetary easing cycle, with the support of the steady growth policy, the consolidation may have come to an end, which is still a good time to configure the spring market as a whole.
It fell early. The low opening of the index this morning was relatively normal. However, after the low opening, the gem and Shenzhen Composite Index rose rapidly, while the Shanghai index was relatively weak after the consolidation of financial stocks. Since then, the index both rose, and the Shenzhen Composite Index operated at the red disk position, while the Shanghai index once approached the red disk and ushered in a rebound as a whole. On the disk, power equipment led the rise, while electronics, medicine and biology, national defense and military industry led the rise, while the coal sector led the decline, while petroleum and petrochemical, banking and real estate fell.
Generally speaking, when heavyweights fall sharply, it is often the precursor of market change. For example, many Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) big falls, especially in the late adjustment period, the index often rebounds or reverses. Yesterday, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) once fell by more than 5%, but before that, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) had been a continuous correction. Therefore, today and the next few days, we can observe whether the index will stabilize or rebound.
Why is it possible for heavyweights to change their prices? On the one hand, the funds may be converted into shares. For example, short-term capital flight from heavyweights to theme stocks. This can be seen from the sudden performance of the semiconductor sector in the morning. Perhaps the rebound of short-term growth stocks has started; On the other hand, it is the structural transformation between heavyweights. Judging from the trend of the disk, such as Baijiu short term fluctuations, but funds may turn to securities and other financial and infrastructure. And this can also be seen from the recent northward capital continued to sweep bank stocks. Of course, yesterday’s Baijiu stock fell emotionally, after the mood at least not so much action.
Therefore, the decline represented by Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) yesterday is not a bad thing. After all, after a continuous decline, the gem has ushered in a temporary stabilization. The main board quickly bottomed out after falling below the annual line today, which also shows the strength of the support below. As for finance, infrastructure and monetary easing, the consolidation here is expected to come to an end. Once all the three indexes stabilize, it is not ruled out that there will be a rebound resonance.
Therefore, the policy of steady growth underpins, the fundamentals and liquidity are stable, and the essence of the market trend remains unchanged. We are still optimistic about the market in spring. After the short-term index fluctuations and the decline of heavyweights, with the bottom recovery of the index, the consolidation is expected to come to an end. At present, it is still a good time for bargain hunting to allocate the market in spring. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities for the recovery of the valuation of undervalued blue chips and make-up. At the same time, we can also pay appropriate attention to the oversold growth stocks with high prosperity.
