Yesterday, the market rose sharply. We clearly put forward that “track stocks rebound strongly, don\’t chase high! Underestimate the value, fall, bargain hunting!”, Why do you think the track stocks have not been adjusted in place? The reason is very simple. When track stocks rise, they will fall too far. The premise for track stocks to stabilize is to accelerate the make-up decline after the sideways market, and then extreme contraction, which is a significant signal for track stocks to stop falling. Now many track stocks are almost the same in terms of decline, but there is not enough time, so don\’t rush to catch up. We retail investors do stocks. At any time, we must pay attention to risks and avoid chasing high randomly.
A good way is: when we buy stocks, we must combine the daily K-line, weekly K-line and monthly K-line. If the weekly K-line and monthly K-line rise a lot, even if the daily K-line shows a sharp decline recently, we must not buy easily, otherwise we can only turn off the lights and eat noodles. If the weekly K-line and monthly K-line show no significant increase, we need to verify the company basically at this time. For example, the performance is good, the company’s industry is good, and the valuation is roughly at a reasonable level, so we need to focus on it at this time. Even if we buy such stocks and fall, we won’t set them very deep. In this way, our mentality is much better.
Today, oil stocks led the rise. The main stimulus is the rise in oil prices, but it is unlikely that two barrels of oil will continue to rise. The continued rise in oil prices will push up inflation, which governments do not want to see. At least they will control the level of inflation.
Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu today led by a decline, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519.SH) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858.SZ) have recently dropped a bit ugly, the liquor industry is not bad news, the growth is also good, liquor prices are also expected to be very strong, Baijiu so down, may be worried about the tax, or last year’s high base, this year’s annual report and the first quarter of the newspaper did not achieve what is expected. But Baijiu is definitely a good track. Is it a good chance to buy when it’s down?
Prefabricated dishes are very popular recently. The market is really large. Young people are more and more reluctant to cook. The repeated epidemic situation makes many people unwilling to cook in public, and there are fewer parties. On the contrary, the sales of prefabricated dishes have increased. However, these industries will not become the varieties of heavy positions of institutions in essence. They are the targets of hot money sniping. It is the golden track industry that can really enter the eyes of institutions.
Today’s market decline method has further depressed the market mood. Tomorrow morning, it may fall inertia. The harder and more urgent the decline, the stronger the motivation of institutional funds to copy the bottom. At present, undervalued real estate, food and beverage, building materials, UHV, power grid intelligence and household appliances deserve attention, which is determined by the requirements of steady growth. Up to now, the space for further sharp decline in the market is very limited.
A typical feature of the big market in the A-share market last year is the price rise! Including the price rise of lithium carbonate, non-ferrous metals and various cyclical products! Therefore, the varieties with big market last year are mainly upstream raw materials, and it is impossible to increase the price so violently this year! Then, since the prices of raw materials in the upstream stop rising or even falling, the pressure on enterprises in the middle and downstream will be much less from the cost point of view.
For example, for consumer goods, the profits of consumer goods were very thin due to the rise in the prices of various raw materials last year. For example, the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, positive and negative electrodes, diaphragms and so on. Except for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750. SZ), many power battery enterprises actually don’t make money, but this year is different. The raw materials of power batteries will certainly not rise this year, Although it is still rising in recent years, with common sense, trees can’t rise to the sky! Therefore, the cost side of power battery enterprises will decline this year, and the demand for new energy vehicles will continue to increase. It is optimistic that it will reach about 5.8 million this year, and the sales volume of power battery enterprises will continue to grow. However, the pressure on the cost side will slow down, and the profit expectation can be imagined.
This logic is also true for consumer goods. When the upstream cost decreases, the demand side will not decrease or even increase, and the profitability of the enterprise will be significantly improved.
